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arXiv 2301.04844cs.LG
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SACDNet:电子健康记录的不确定性对早期2型糖尿病的预测

SACDNet: Towards Early Type 2 Diabetes Prediction with Uncertainty for Electronic Health Records

CureMD Research and Development(CureMD研发部);University of the Punjab(旁遮普大学)

Tayyab Nasir, Muhammad Kamran Malik

摘要:

2型糖尿病(T2DM)是最常见的疾病之一,也是导致死亡的主要原因。T2DM的早期诊断是一个具有挑战性的问题,也是预防严重并发症的必要条件。这项研究提出了一种新的神经网络架构,用于早期T2DM预测,使用多头自我注意力和密集层从历史诊断,患者生命体征和人口统计学中提取特征。所提出的技术被称为共病自我注意力网络(SACDNet),实现了89.3%的准确性和89.1%的F1分数,与基线技术相比,准确性提高了1.6%,F1分数提高了1.3%。蒙特卡罗(MC)Dropout应用于SACDNet以获得近似值。提出了一个基于MC Dropout SACDNet的T2DM预测框架,以消除与预测相关的不确定性。作为本研究的一部分,还建立了T2DM预测数据集,该数据集基于真实世界的常规电子健康记录(EHR)数据,包括4,124名糖尿病患者和181,767名非糖尿病患者,这些数据收集自美国不同地区运行的295个不同的EHR系统。该数据集进一步用于评估7种不同的机器学习和3种基于深度学习的模型。最后,每种技术对不同的患者人口统计组的公平性进行了详细的分析,以验证无偏的概括的技术和数据的多样性。

英文摘要:

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the most common diseases and a leading cause of death. The problem of early diagnosis of T2DM is challenging and necessary to prevent serious complications. This study proposes a novel neural network architecture for early T2DM prediction using multi-headed self-attention and dense layers to extract features from historic diagnoses, patient vitals, and demographics. The proposed technique is called the Self-Attention for Comorbid Disease Net (SACDNet), achieving an accuracy of 89.3% and an F1-Score of 89.1%, having a 1.6% increased accuracy and 1.3% increased f1-score compared to the baseline techniques. Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout is applied to the SACDNet to get a bayesian approximation. A T2DM prediction framework based on the MC Dropout SACDNet is proposed to quantize the uncertainty associated with the predictions. A T2DM prediction dataset is also built as part of this study which is based on real-world routine Electronic Health Record (EHR) data comprising 4,124 diabetic and 181,767 non-diabetic examples, collected from 295 different EHR systems running in different parts of the United States of America. This dataset is further used to evaluate 7 different machine learning and 3 deep learning-based models. Finally, a detailed analysis of the fairness of every technique against different patient demographic groups is performed to validate the unbiased generalization of the techniques and the diversity of the data.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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