标记观测分析作为综合生态系统评估范围界定和交流的工具
Flagged observation analyses as a tool for scoping and communication in Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
摘要：
我们提供了一个称为标记观测分析，可以应用到所有可用的时间序列，以帮助确定时间序列，应该优先。统计过程首先应用一个结构时间序列模型，包括一个随机趋势模型的数据，以估计长期趋势。该模型采用状态空间表示，趋势分量由卡尔曼滤波算法估计，该算法利用数据中过去的所有信息获得未来一年或多年的预测值。因此，根据研究人员希望视为“最近”的年份数，这些年份的预期趋势是通过统计程序仅使用之前年份的信息来估计的。预测带是围绕最近几年的预测趋势估计的，在最后一步，对最近几年的观测结果超出这些预测范围的程度进行了评估。那些这样做的，可以被识别为标记的观察。还提出了一个程序，用于评估是否从所有最近的观察的组合信息形成一个模式，偏离预测的趋势，从而代表一个意想不到的趋势，可能会被标记。除了形成基础，以确定时间序列，应优先在综合生态系统评估，标记的意见可以提供基础，与管理人员和利益攸关方沟通有关最近的生态系统changes.Applications的框架说明了两个工作的例子。
英文摘要：
We provide a procedure termed Flagged observation analyses that can be applied to all the available time series to help identifying time series that should be prioritized.The statistical procedure first applies a structural time series model including a stochastic trend model to the data to estimate the long-term trend. The model adopts a state space representation, and the trend component is estimated by a Kalman filter algorithm.The algorithm obtains one- or more-years-ahead prediction values using all past information from the data. Thus, depending on the number of years the investigator wants to consider as "the most recent", the expected trend for these years is estimated through the statistical procedure by using only information from the years prior to them.Forecast bands are estimated around the predicted trends for the recent years, and in the final step, an assessment is made on the extent to which observations from the most recent years fall outside these forecast bands. Those that do, may be identified as flagged observations. A procedure is also presented for assessing whether the combined information from all of the most recent observations form a pattern that deviates from the predicted trend and thus represents an unexpected tendency that may be flagged. In addition to form the basis for identifying time series that should be prioritized in an integrated ecosystem assessment, flagged observations can provide the basis for communicating with managers and stakeholders about recent ecosystem change.Applications of the framework are illustrated with two worked examples.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
