危机不会导致短期增长放缓
Crises Do Not Cause Lower Short-Term Growth
摘要：
人们通常认为，金融危机“导致”一个国家在两年衰退期内的增长率下降，这可以从危机后的国内生产总值增长中反映出来。然而，通过对比因果模型与标准预测模型，本文认为，这样的信念是非因果的。为了进行因果推断，我们设计了一个两阶段交错差异模型来估计平均处理效应。将残差解释为每次危机对处理效应的贡献，我们得出结论，横截面危机往往仅限于为政策制定者提供相关的因果信息。
英文摘要：
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard prediction model, this paper argues that such a belief is non-causal. To make causal inferences, we design a two-stage staggered difference-in-differences model to estimate the average treatment effects. Interpreting the residuals as the contribution of each crisis to the treatment effects, we astonishingly conclude that cross-sectional crises are often limited to providing relevant causal information to policymakers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
