物种对气候变化反应的机制预测：生物物理生态学的前景
Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: the promise of biophysical ecology
摘要：
全球变化生物学的一个挑战是预测物种将如何应对未来的环境变化，并管理这些反应。为了使这种预测和管理行动对新的未来保持稳健，我们需要准确地描述生物体如何体验它们的环境以及它们做出反应的生物机制。所有生物都通过在精细的空间和时间尺度上进行热量和水的交换而与其环境建立了生态联系，这种交换可以用生物物理模型来捕捉。虽然基于生物物理生态学的机械模型有着悠久的发展和应用历史，但它们在全球变化生物学中的应用仍然有限，尽管它们有着巨大的前景和越来越容易获得的软件。我们认为，在生物物理模型的理论和方法方面的更多理解和培训对于扩大其应用至关重要。我们的综述展示了如何应用生物物理模型来理解和预测气候变化对物种行为、物候、生存、分布和丰度的影响。我们说明了可以生成的输出类型，以及不同实现所需的数据输入。例子从简单的体温计算到基于预测的能量和水平衡的物种分布限制的更复杂的分析，包括行为和物候。我们概述了目前限制生物物理模型广泛应用的挑战。我们讨论的进展和未来的发展，可以让这些模型被应用到许多物种在大的空间范围和时间框架。我们强调生物物理模型是如何独特地适合于解决全球变化生物学问题，包括预测和解释对环境变异性和极端，多重或变化的约束，以及新的非生物或生物环境的反应。
英文摘要：
A challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical models is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. We illustrate the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models. We discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. We highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.
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