Deep conditional transformation models for survival analysis
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai（西奈山伊坎医学院）；Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health at Mount Sinai（西奈山哈索·普拉特纳数字健康研究所）；University of Zurich（苏黎世大学）；Zurich University of Applied Sciences（苏黎世应用科学大学）；Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）；Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center（纪念斯隆·凯特琳癌症中心）
Gabriele Campanella, Lucas Kook, Ida Häggström, Torsten Hothorn, Thomas J. Fuchs
An every increasing number of clinical trials features a time-to-event outcome and records non-tabular patient data, such as magnetic resonance imaging or text data in the form of electronic health records. Recently, several neural-network based solutions have been proposed, some of which are binary classifiers. Parametric, distribution-free approaches which make full use of survival time and censoring status have not received much attention. We present deep conditional transformation models (DCTMs) for survival outcomes as a unifying approach to parametric and semiparametric survival analysis. DCTMs allow the specification of non-linear and non-proportional hazards for both tabular and non-tabular data and extend to all types of censoring and truncation. On real and semi-synthetic data, we show that DCTMs compete with state-of-the-art DL approaches to survival analysis.
Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a nove…
The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random survival forests is the log-rank test statistics, which favors splitting variables with many possible split points. Conditional inference forests avoid this split variable selection bias. However, linear rank statistics are utilized by default in conditional inference forests to…
Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学）；Australian Institute of Health Innovation（澳大利亚健康创新研究院）
Pre-processing and Data Augmentation play an important role in Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN). Whereby several methods aim for standardization and augmentation of the dataset, we here propose a novel method aimed to feed DCNN with spherical space transformed input data that could better facilitate feature learning compared to standard Cartesian space images and volumes. In this work, the spherical coordinates transformation has been applied as a preprocessing method that, used in conjunction with normal MRI volumes, improves the accuracy of brain tumor segmentation and patient overa…
Bipartite Patient-Modality Graph Learning with Event-Conditional Modelling of Censoring for Cancer Survival Prediction
Hunan Provincial Key Lab on Bioinformatics, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University（湖南省级生物信息学重点实验室，计算机科学与工程学院，中南大学）；Xinjiang Engineering Research Center of Big Data and Intelligent Software, School of Software, Xinjiang University（新疆大数据与智能软件工程研究中心，软件学院，新疆大学）
Self-Consistent Equation-guided Neural Networks for Censored Time-to-Event Data
Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute（哈佛朝圣者医疗保健研究所）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Harvard School of Public Health（哈佛公共卫生学院）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）
Recently Goswami et al. \cite{goswami2022concordance} introduced two novel implementations of combined regression strategy to find the conditional survival function. The paper uses regression-based weak learners and provides an alternative version of the combined regression strategy (COBRA) ensemble using the Integrated Brier Score to predict conditional survival function. We create a novel predictor based on a weighted version of all machine predictions taking weights as a specific function of normalized Integrated Brier Score. We use two different norms (Frobenius and Sup norm) to extract th…
APEX Data & Knowledge Management Lab（APEX数据与知识管理实验室）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Survival analysis is a hotspot in statistical research for modeling time-to-event information with data censorship handling, which has been widely used in many applications such as clinical research, information system and other fields with survivorship bias. Many works have been proposed for survival analysis ranging from traditional statistic methods to machine learning models. However, the existing methodologies either utilize counting-based statistics on the segmented data, or have a pre-assumption on the event probability distribution w.r.t. time. Moreover, few works consider sequential p…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Merck Research Laboratories（默克研究实验室）
There has been increasing interest in modelling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. Current approaches have focused on designing special cost functions to handle censored survival data. We propose a very different method with two steps. In the first step, we transform each subject's survival time into a series of jackknife pseudo conditional survival probabilities and then use these pseudo probabilities as a quantitative response variable in the deep neural network model. By using the pseudo values, we reduce a complex survival analysis to a standard regression probl…
China University of Petroleum（中国石油大学）；College of Information Science and Engineering（信息科学与工程学院）
In this paper, we use the Hawkes process to model the sequence of failure, i.e., events of compressor station and conduct survival analysis on various failure events of the compressor station. However, until now, nearly all relevant literatures of the Hawkes point processes assume that the base intensity of the conditional intensity function is time-invariant. This assumption is apparently too harsh to be verified. For example, in the practical application, including financial analysis, reliability analysis, survival analysis and social network analysis, the base intensity of the truth conditi…
A Guide to Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects in Competing Risks Settings
Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University（图恩-多特蒙德大学统计学系）；Research Center Trustworthy Data Science and Security, University Alliance Ruhr (UA Ruhr)（鲁尔大学联盟可信数据科学与安全研究中心）；Institute for Mathematics, University of Augsburg（艾希施泰特大学数学研究所）
Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low…
LaMME（拉梅实验室）；Paris Saclay University / UEVE（巴黎萨克雷大学/埃夫里大学）；LaMME - CNRS（拉梅实验室-法国国家科学研究中心）；IBISC（IBISC实验室）
Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) estimation methods have risen in popularity in the last years. Most of the time, individual effects are better presented as Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). Recently, representation balancing techniques have gained considerable momentum in causal inference from observational data, still limited to continuous (and binary) outcomes. However, in numerous pathologies, the outcome of interest is a (possibly censored) survival time. Our paper proposes theoretical guarantees for a representation balancing framework applied to counterfactual inference in…
Models for predicting the time of a future event are crucial for risk assessment, across a diverse range of applications. Existing time-to-event (survival) models have focused primarily on preserving pairwise ordering of estimated event times, or relative risk. Model calibration is relatively under explored, despite its critical importance in time-to-event applications. We present a survival function estimator for probabilistic predictions in time-to-event models, based on a neural network model for draws from the distribution of event times, without explicit assumptions on the form of the dis…
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich（瑞士经济研究所，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；University of Zurich（苏黎世大学）；LMU Munich（慕尼黑大学）
Learning the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of an outcome variable conditional on a set of features remains challenging, especially in high-dimensional settings. Conditional transformation models provide a semi-parametric approach that allows to model a large class of conditional CDFs without an explicit parametric distribution assumption and with only a few parameters. Existing estimation approaches within this class are, however, either limited in their complexity and applicability to unstructured data sources such as images or text, lack interpretability, or are restricted to certai…
On the Probability of First Success in Differential Evolution: Hazard Identities and Tail Bounds
Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics（数学与信息学系）；Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski（索菲亚大学圣克莱门特·欧里斯基学院）；Department of Mathematics（数学系）；University of Chemical Technology and Metallurgy（化学技术与冶金大学）；Department of Informatics（信息学系）
Centre for Big Data Research in Health (CBDRH)（健康大数据研究中心）
Causal inference for observational longitudinal studies often requires the accurate estimation of treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of time-dependent patient history and time-dependent covariates. To tackle this longitudinal treatment effect estimation problem, we have developed a time-variant causal survival (TCS) model that uses the potential outcomes framework with an ensemble of recurrent subnetworks to estimate the difference in survival probabilities and its confidence interval over time as a function of time-dependent covariates and treatments. Using simulated …
