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arXiv 2210.04095cs.LGphysics.soc-ph
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你怎么去哪里?通过使用Transformers学习旅行模式信息来改进下一个位置预测

How do you go where? Improving next location prediction by learning travel mode information using transformers

ETH Zurich(苏黎世联邦理工学院);Institute of Advanced Research in Artificial Intelligence(人工智能高级研究所)

Ye Hong, Henry Martin, Martin Raubal

摘要:

预测个人的下一个访问位置是人类移动性分析中的一个关键问题,因为它是个性化和优化可持续交通选择所必需的。在这里,我们提出了一个基于Transformer解码器的神经网络,根据历史位置、时间和旅行模式来预测个人将访问的下一个位置,这些都是以前工作中经常忽略的行为维度。特别地,下一个出行模式的预测被设计为辅助任务,以帮助指导网络的学习。为了进行评估,我们将这种方法应用于两个大规模和长期的GPS跟踪数据集,涉及600多人。我们的实验表明,所提出的方法显着优于其他国家的最先进的下一个位置预测方法的大幅度(8.05%和5.60%的F1分数相对增加两个数据集,分别)。我们进行了广泛的消融研究,量化的影响,考虑时间特征,旅行方式的信息,和辅助任务的预测结果。此外,我们通过实验确定了在我们的模型中包括下一个模式预测时的性能上限。最后,我们的分析表明,位置预测的性能显着不同的个人所选择的下一个旅行模式。这些结果表明,在人类流动性预测任务中,有可能更系统地考虑旅行行为的其他方面。我们的模型和实验的源代码可以在https://github.com/mie-lab/location-mode-prediction上获得。

英文摘要:

Predicting the next visited location of an individual is a key problem in human mobility analysis, as it is required for the personalization and optimization of sustainable transport options. Here, we propose a transformer decoder-based neural network to predict the next location an individual will visit based on historical locations, time, and travel modes, which are behaviour dimensions often overlooked in previous work. In particular, the prediction of the next travel mode is designed as an auxiliary task to help guide the network's learning. For evaluation, we apply this approach to two large-scale and long-term GPS tracking datasets involving more than 600 individuals. Our experiments show that the proposed method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art next location prediction methods by a large margin (8.05% and 5.60% relative increase in F1-score for the two datasets, respectively). We conduct an extensive ablation study that quantifies the influence of considering temporal features, travel mode information, and the auxiliary task on the prediction results. Moreover, we experimentally determine the performance upper bound when including the next mode prediction in our model. Finally, our analysis indicates that the performance of location prediction varies significantly with the chosen next travel mode by the individual. These results show potential for a more systematic consideration of additional dimensions of travel behaviour in human mobility prediction tasks. The source code of our model and experiments is available at https://github.com/mie-lab/location-mode-prediction.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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