Arrival/Travel times for public transit exhibit variability on account of factors like seasonality, dwell times at bus stops, traffic signals, travel demand fluctuation etc. The developing world in particular is plagued by additional factors like lack of lane discipline, excess vehicles, diverse modes of transport and so on. This renders the bus arrival time prediction (BATP) to be a challenging problem especially in the developing world. A novel data-driven model based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for BATP (in real-time) in the current work. The model intelligently incorporates both spatial and temporal correlations in a unique (non-linear) fashion distinct from existing approaches. In particular, we propose a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based Encoder-Decoder(ED) OR Seq2Seq RNN model (originally introduced for language translation) for BATP. The geometry of the dynamic real time BATP problem enables a nice fit with the Encoder-Decoder based RNN structure. We feed relevant additional synchronized inputs (from previous trips) at each step of the decoder (a feature classically unexplored in machine translation applications). Further motivated from accurately modelling congestion influences on travel time prediction, we additionally propose to use a bidirectional layer at the decoder (something unexplored in other time-series based ED application contexts). The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is demonstrated on real field data collected from challenging traffic conditions. Our experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms diverse existing state-of-art data-driven approaches proposed for the same problem.
Considering deep sequence learning for practical application, two representative RNNs - LSTM and GRU may come to mind first. Nevertheless, is there no chance for other RNNs? Will there be a better RNN in the future? In this work, we propose a novel, succinct and promising RNN - Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (Fusion RNN). Fusion RNN is composed of Fusion module and Transport module every time step. Fusion module realizes the multi-round fusion of the input and hidden state vector. Transport module which mainly refers to simple recurrent network calculate the hidden state and prepare to pass i…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Rubikloud Technologies Inc.（Rubikloud科技公司）
Access to a large variety of data across a massive population has made it possible to predict customer purchase patterns and responses to marketing campaigns. In particular, accurate demand forecasts for popular products with frequent repeat purchases are essential since these products are one of the main drivers of profits. However, buyer purchase patterns are extremely diverse and sparse on a per-product level due to population heterogeneity as well as dependence in purchase patterns across product categories. Traditional methods in survival analysis have proven effective in dealing with cen…
Siddaganga Institute of Technology（悉达甘加理工学院）；Gubbi labs, LLP（古比实验室有限责任合伙公司）
The notion of smart cities is being adapted globally to provide a better quality of living. A smart city's smart mobility component focuses on providing smooth and safe commuting for its residents and promotes eco-friendly and sustainable alternatives such as public transit (bus). Among several smart applications, a system that provides up-to-the-minute information like bus arrival, travel duration, schedule, etc., improves the reliability of public transit services. Still, this application needs live information on traffic flow, accidents, events, and the location of the buses. Most cities la…
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University（弗吉尼亚理工学院暨州立大学）
Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogen…
Bilkent University（比尔肯特大学）；DataBoss A. S.（DataBoss股份公司）
We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally varying dynamics of the underlying system. We introduce a novel recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, which adaptively switches between internal regimes in a Markovian way to model the nonstationary nature of the given data. Our model, Markovian RNN employs a hidden Markov model (HMM) for regime transitions, where each regime controls hidden state transi…
The recurrent neural networks (RNN) with richly distributed internal states and flexible non-linear transition functions, have overtaken the dynamic Bayesian networks such as the hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the task of modeling highly structured sequential data. These data, such as from speech and handwriting, often contain complex relationships between the underlaying variational factors and the observed data. The standard RNN model has very limited randomness or variability in its structure, coming from the output conditional probability model. This paper will present different ways of us…
An RNN-based forecasting approach is used to early detect anomalies in industrial multivariate time series data from a simulated Tennessee Eastman Process (TEP) with many cyber-attacks. This work continues a previously proposed LSTM-based approach to the fault detection in simpler data. It is considered necessary to adapt the RNN network to deal with data containing stochastic, stationary, transitive and a rich variety of anomalous behaviours. There is particular focus on early detection with special NAB-metric. A comparison with the DPCA approach is provided. The generated data set is made pu…
Estimated time of arrival (ETA) is one of the most important services in intelligent transportation systems and becomes a challenging spatial-temporal (ST) data mining task in recent years. Nowadays, deep learning based methods, specifically recurrent neural networks (RNN) based ones are adapted to model the ST patterns from massive data for ETA and become the state-of-the-art. However, RNN is suffering from slow training and inference speed, as its structure is unfriendly to parallel computing. To solve this problem, we propose a novel, brief and effective framework mainly based on feed-forwa…
University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been widely used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks given its superior performance on processing sequential data. However, it is challenging to interpret and debug RNNs due to the inherent complexity and the lack of transparency of RNNs. While many explainable AI (XAI) techniques have been proposed for RNNs, most of them only support local explanations rather than global explanations. In this paper, we present DeepSeer, an interactive system that provides both global and local explanations of RNN behavior in multiple tightly-coordinated views for m…
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi（德里印度理工学院）；University of California Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Microsoft Research India（微软印度研究院）
This paper develops the FastRNN and FastGRNN algorithms to address the twin RNN limitations of inaccurate training and inefficient prediction. Previous approaches have improved accuracy at the expense of prediction costs making them infeasible for resource-constrained and real-time applications. Unitary RNNs have increased accuracy somewhat by restricting the range of the state transition matrix's singular values but have also increased the model size as they require a larger number of hidden units to make up for the loss in expressive power. Gated RNNs have obtained state-of-the-art accuracie…
NeuroMemFPP: A recurrent neural approach for memory-aware parameter estimation in fractional Poisson process
Operations Management and Quantitative Techniques Area, Indian Institute of Management Indore, Indore 453556, India.（印度印地纳管理学院运营管理与定量技术部门，印度印地纳，453556）
Centre de Nanosciences et de Nanotechnologies, Université Paris Sud, Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学、巴黎南大学纳米科学与纳米技术中心）；Unité Mixte de Physique, CNRS, Thales, Université Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学、巴黎南大学、泰雷兹集团、法国国家科学研究中心联合物理研究组）；Mila, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学米拉实验室）；Canadian Institute for Advanced Research（加拿大高等研究院）
Equilibrium Propagation (EP) is a biologically inspired learning algorithm for convergent recurrent neural networks, i.e. RNNs that are fed by a static input x and settle to a steady state. Training convergent RNNs consists in adjusting the weights until the steady state of output neurons coincides with a target y. Convergent RNNs can also be trained with the more conventional Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT) algorithm. In its original formulation EP was described in the case of real-time neuronal dynamics, which is computationally costly. In this work, we introduce a discrete-time version …
Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学）；Kyushu University（九州大学）
Deep learning (DL) defines a data-driven programming paradigm that automatically composes the system decision logic from the training data. In company with the data explosion and hardware acceleration during the past decade, DL achieves tremendous success in many cutting-edge applications. However, even the state-of-the-art DL systems still suffer from quality and reliability issues. It was only until recently that some preliminary progress was made in testing feed-forward DL systems. In contrast to feed-forward DL systems, recurrent neural networks (RNN) follow a very different architectural …
Normalizing flows transform a simple base distribution into a complex target distribution and have proved to be powerful models for data generation and density estimation. In this work, we propose a novel type of normalizing flow driven by a differential deformation of the Wiener process. As a result, we obtain a rich time series model whose observable process inherits many of the appealing properties of its base process, such as efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. Furthermore, our continuous treatment provides a natural framework for irregular time series with an independent a…
Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories (MERL)（三菱电机研究实验室）；Boston University（波士顿大学）
We propose a novel {\it Equilibrated Recurrent Neural Network} (ERNN) to combat the issues of inaccuracy and instability in conventional RNNs. Drawing upon the concept of autapse in neuroscience, we propose augmenting an RNN with a time-delayed self-feedback loop. Our sole purpose is to modify the dynamics of each internal RNN state and, at any time, enforce it to evolve close to the equilibrium point associated with the input signal at that time. We show that such self-feedback helps stabilize the hidden state transitions leading to fast convergence during training while efficiently learning …
Rethinking Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: A Reinforced Recurrent Encoder with Prediction-Oriented Proximal Policy Optimization
School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学管理学院）；Center for Applied Mathematics, École des Ponts ParisTech（巴黎高等理工学院应用数学中心）；School of Mechanical Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University（大连交通大学机械工程学院）；School of Computer Science and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学计算机科学与技术学院）
Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）；Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)（瑞典皇家理工学院）
In this paper, we develop optimal policies for deciding when a wireless node with radio frequency (RF) energy harvesting (EH) capabilities should try and harvest ambient RF energy. While the idea of RF-EH is appealing, it is not always beneficial to attempt to harvest energy; in environments where the ambient energy is low, nodes could consume more energy being awake with their harvesting circuits turned on than what they can extract from the ambient radio signals; it is then better to enter a sleep mode until the ambient RF energy increases. Towards this end, we consider a scenario with inter…
