对OJ 287下一个撞击耀斑到达时期的精确预测
Refining the prediction for OJ 287 next impact flare arrival epoch
摘要：
明亮的耀变体OJ~287经常出现高亮度韧致辐射耀斑，这被解释为双星系统中次级超大质量黑洞（SMBH）撞击主SMBH的吸积盘的结果。首先，我们展示了这些耀斑发生的时间是由一个简单的分析公式预测的，该公式基于开普勒方程，解释了自1888年以来的耀斑。下一个撞击耀斑，即第26号耀斑，是相当特殊的，因为它打破了每12年周期发生两次撞击耀斑的典型模式。这将是当前周期的第三次韧致辐射耀斑，此前已经观测到2015年和2019年OJ~287的撞击耀斑。不幸的是，由于天体物理学的考虑，很难预测第26号耀斑的确切到达时间。本文的第二部分介绍了我们最近对OJ~287的观测结果。它们表明，2005年观测到的22号耀斑的耀斑前光变曲线与2022年的耀斑前光变曲线表现出类似的活动，在我们的模型中，这一活动在预期的26号耀斑之前。我们认为，耀斑前的活动最有可能出现在初级喷流的活动调制的过境的次级SMBH通过吸积盘的主要。观测2022年10月OJ~287的下一次撞击耀斑将证实双黑洞系统中的盘撞击理论。
英文摘要：
The bright blazar OJ~287 routinely parades high brightness bremsstrahlung flares which are explained as being a result of a secondary supermassive black hole (SMBH) impacting the accretion disk of a primary SMBH in a binary system. We begin by showing that these flares occur at times predicted by a simple analytical formula, based on the Kepler equation, which explains flares since 1888. The next impact flare, namely the flare number 26, is rather peculiar as it breaks the typical pattern of two impact flares per 12 year cycle. This will be the third bremsstrahlung flare of the current cycle that follows the already observed 2015 and 2019 impact flares from OJ~287. Unfortunately, astrophysical considerations make it difficult to predict the exact arrival epoch of the flare number 26. In the second part of the paper, we describe our recent OJ~287 observations. They show that the pre-flare light curve of flare number 22, observed in 2005, exhibits similar activity as the pre-flare light curve in 2022, preceding the expected flare number 26 in our model. We argue that the pre-flare activity most likely arises in the primary jet whose activity is modulated by the transit of the secondary SMBH through the accretion disk of the primary. Observing the next impact flare of OJ~287 in October 2022 will substantiate the theory of disk impacts in binary black hole systems.
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