OCP脱碳
Decarbonizing OCP
AI总结：
本研究针对OCP集团电力供应脱碳需求，提出结合鲁棒与分布鲁棒优化的方法，通过配置太阳能板和电池在降碳同时实现盈利，该方法可推广至其他工业用户。
摘要：
我们介绍了与全球最大磷酸盐及磷酸盐产品生产商之一OCP集团的合作，旨在大幅降低OCP的碳排放。我们研究了通过混合安装太阳能电池板和电池来实现OCP电力供应脱碳的问题，目标是最小化其时间折现投资成本，以及通过国家电网满足剩余电力需求的成本。OCP目前正利用我们优化模型得出的洞见制定其可再生能源投资战略，并承诺到2027年向一项绿色计划投资1300亿摩洛哥迪拉姆（约合130亿美元），脱碳是其中的一部分内容。\n我们通过结合鲁棒优化与分布鲁棒优化，使模型能够抵御太阳能发电量预测值与实际值之间的偏差。为应对每日太阳能发电量的波动，我们提出了一种数据驱动的鲁棒优化方法，通过对不确定性集合取平均来避免过度保守。为防范气候变化导致的季节性天气模式波动，我们采用了分布鲁棒优化技术。在OCP投资100亿摩洛哥迪拉姆的情况下，所提出的方法可使OCP能源需求产生的碳排放减少70%以上，同时在20年内产生50亿摩洛哥迪拉姆的净现值（NPV）。此外，投资200亿摩洛哥迪拉姆可实现95%的碳排放削减，并产生约20亿摩洛哥迪拉姆的净现值。\n为履行《巴黎气候协定》，以财务可持续的方式快速实现全球经济脱碳势在必行。因此，本研究开发了一种鲁棒优化方法，使OCP能够通过采购太阳能电池板和电池实现盈利性脱碳。此外，该方法还可应用于其他工业用户的脱碳场景。
英文摘要：
We present our collaboration with the OCP Group, one of the world's largest producers of phosphate and phosphate-based products, to reduce OCP's carbon emissions significantly. We study the problem of decarbonizing OCP's electricity supply by installing a mixture of solar panels and batteries to minimize its time-discounted investment cost plus the cost of satisfying its remaining demand via the national grid. OCP is currently designing its renewable investment strategy, using insights gleaned from our optimization model, and has pledged to invest 130 billion MAD (approx. 13 billion USD) in a green initiative by 2027, a subset of which involves decarbonization. We immunize our model against deviations between forecast and realized solar generation output via a combination of robust and distributionally robust optimization. To account for variability in daily solar generation, we propose a data-driven robust optimization approach that prevents excessive conservatism by averaging across uncertainty sets. To protect against variability in seasonal weather patterns induced by climate change, we invoke distributionally robust optimization techniques. Under a 10 billion MAD investment by OCP, the proposed methodology reduces the carbon emissions which arise from OCP's energy needs by more than 70% while generating a net present value (NPV) of 5 billion MAD over twenty years. Moreover, a 20 billion MAD investment induces a 95% reduction in carbon emissions and generates an NPV of around 2 billion MAD. To fulfill the Paris climate agreement, rapidly decarbonizing the global economy in a financially sustainable fashion is imperative. Accordingly, this work develops a robust optimization methodology that enables OCP to decarbonize at a profit by purchasing solar panels and batteries. Moreover, the methodology could be applied to decarbonize other industrial consumers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
