最频繁的N-k线路停电发生在可以改善应急选择的图案中
The most frequent N-k line outages occur in motifs that can improve contingency selection
摘要:
同时发生的多条线路停电在电力传输网络中表现出多种空间模式。其中一些空间模式形成了网络应急图案,我们将其定义为比从网络中随机选择的多个中断更频繁地发生的多个中断的模式。我们发现,选择N-K的意外事件,从这些常见的应急图案占多个启动线路停电的概率。这一结果表明,使用历史停电数据的两个传输系统。它使N-k列联表能够更有效地解释可能的多个启动中断,而不是穷举列表或随机选择。由基元构造的N-k列联表可以提高连锁停电模拟中的风险估计,并有助于确定公用事业应急选择。
英文摘要:
Multiple line outages that occur together show a variety of spatial patterns in the power transmission network. Some of these spatial patterns form network contingency motifs, which we define as the patterns of multiple outages that occur much more frequently than multiple outages chosen randomly from the network. We show that choosing N-k contingencies from these commonly occurring contingency motifs accounts for most of the probability of multiple initiating line outages. This result is demonstrated using historical outage data for two transmission systems. It enables N-k contingency lists that are much more efficient in accounting for the likely multiple initiating outages than exhaustive listing or random selection. The N-k contingency lists constructed from motifs can improve risk estimation in cascading outage simulations and help to confirm utility contingency selection.
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