COVID-19对US地区人员流动性和零售额的影响
Impact of COVID-19 on human mobility and retail sales in the US
摘要：
由于COVID-19疫情，各国政府不得不迅速实施封锁政策，限制人员流动，以抑制疾病传播并降低死亡率。由于政府因应疫情而采取行动限制，美国零售销售于二零二零年四月较去年下跌-22%。这项研究着眼于政府政策的严格性，流动模式和隐含的合规水平。这些变量之间的关系和对零售额的影响有助于了解过去的人类行为，并为未来的流行病做好准备。美国各州的零售损失差异很大，从密西西比州的-1.6%到夏威夷的-38.9%。西部和东北部各州受影响最大，而南部各州的复原力相对较强。回归被用来确定统计上显着的状态水平的特征。最大的损失发生在2020年总统选举中民主党选民比例高的州和人口众多的州。民主党选票增加10%，零售额损失增加2.4%。成年人中高中文凭以下比例较高的州最具弹性。人均行程少于一英里的次数被定义为流动性指数，因为它对美国各州平均零售额的影响最大。这一流动性指数增长10%，零售额增长4.6%。所有国家普遍遵守，并表现出减少流动性与日益严格。严格性指数上升1%，流动性指数下降1%。民主党选民比例高、人口多、位于西部的州往往最顺从。投票给民主党的人数比例增加10%，合规性就会增加5%。
英文摘要：
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments had to rapidly implement lockdown policies that restricted human mobility to suppress the spread of the disease and reduce mortality. Because of the movement restrictions resulting from government responses to the pandemic, US retail sales declined by -22% in April 2020 compared to the previous year. This study looks at the stringency of government policies, mobility patterns, and implied compliance levels. The relationships between these variables and the influence on retail sales serve to understand past human behavior and prepare for future pandemics. Retail losses varied dramatically across the US states, from -1.6% in Mississippi to -38.9% in Hawaii. States in the west and northeast were most affected, while those in the south were relatively resilient. Regression was used to identify statistically significant state-level characteristics. The greatest losses occurred in states with a high percentage of Democrat voters in the 2020 Presidential Election and those with large populations. A 10% increase in the Democrat vote is associated with a 2.4% increase in retail sales loss. States with a high percentage of adults with less than a high school diploma were most resilient. The number of trips of less than one-mile per capita is defined as the mobility index as it has the greatest influence on retail sales, on average, across the US states. An increase of 10% in this mobility index is associated with a 4.6% increase in retail sales. All states were generally compliant and exhibited reduced mobility with increasing stringency. A rise of 1% in the stringency index is associated with a decline of 1% in the mobility index. States with a high percentage of Democrat voters, large populations, and located in the west tend to be most compliant. A 10% rise in the proportion of people voting Democrat is associated with a 5% increase in compliance.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
