城市尺度地震易损性评估中的客观风险和感知风险
Objective and perceived risk in seismic vulnerability assessment at urban scale
摘要：
在地震活动频繁的城市地区进行地震危险性评估无疑是地区管理者必须面对的最重要问题之一。对这种风险的可靠评估是设计具体的抗震改善措施和应急管理计划的基础。不适当的地震风险评估可能会产生误导性结果，并导致错误的决策，造成相关的经济和社会影响。城市地区的地震危险性主要与三个因素有关，即“危险性”、“暴露性”和“脆弱性”。灾害衡量地震产生危害的可能性;暴露评估暴露于危害的人口数量;脆弱性表示所考虑的建筑物在地震情况下遭受损害的倾向。对这些因素的估计可能并不总是与常住人口的感知风险相吻合。实施旨在降低建筑物脆弱性的结构抗震改善干预措施的倾向在很大程度上取决于感知的风险。本文探讨了客观风险和感知风险的区别，并强调了一些关键问题。本研究的目的是校准适当的政策，允许解决最适当的地震风险缓解方案，参考目前的感知风险水平。我们建议引入地震政策预防指数（SPPi）。这种方法适用于一个案例研究的重点是人口稠密区的城市卡塔尼亚（意大利）。
英文摘要：
The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact. The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, "hazard", "exposure" and "vulnerability". Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk. This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy).
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