模拟土地转换对动物流行病传播的作用
Modeling the Role of Land Conversion on the Spread of an Epizootic Disease
摘要：
在过去的一个世纪里，土地转换和由此产生的驯化物种和野生物种之间的接触可以说是新的动物流行病和人畜共患病出现的最大贡献者。这些相互作用的一个意外后果是人畜共患病或动物流行病从野生物种向人类及其驯养动物的溢出。疾病溢出是土地转换的边缘效应，对转换区域的大小和形状敏感。我们结合景观生态学的空间指标与理论流行病学模型，以了解土地转换的大小和形状如何影响单一和两个物种种群的动物流行病和人畜共患病的传播。我们发现，转换区域越不紧凑，接触区的深度越大，引入的疾病在驯化种群中传播的速度就越快。
英文摘要：
Land conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been the single largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. An unintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species to humans and their domesticates. Disease spillovers are edge effects of land conversion and are sensitive to the size and shape of converted areas. We combine spatial metrics from landscape ecology with theoretical epidemiological models to understand how the size and shape of land conversion affect epizootic and zoonotic disease transmission of single and two species populations. We show that the less compact the converted area, and the the greater the depth of the contact zone, the more rapidly will an introduced disease spread through the domesticated population.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
