基于生存分析的移动通信状态转移模型
A State Transition Model for Mobile Notifications via Survival Analysis
摘要：
移动通知已成为社交网络服务的主要通信渠道，以保持用户知情和参与。随着越来越多的移动应用程序向用户推送通知，他们不断面临发送什么、何时以及如何发送的决定。缺乏研究和方法通常会导致启发式决策。许多通知在不恰当的时间到达或引入太多中断，无法为用户提供价值并引发用户投诉。在本文中，我们探讨移动通知和用户参与之间的交互的独特功能。我们提出了一个状态转换框架来定量评估通知的有效性。在这个框架内，我们开发了一个生存模型，假设一个对数线性结构和韦布尔分布的徽章通知。我们的研究结果表明，该模型实现了更灵活的应用程序和优越的预测精度比逻辑斯谛回归模型。特别是，我们提供了一个关于通知交付时间优化的在线用例，以展示我们如何做出更好的决策，推动更多的用户参与，并为用户提供更多的价值。
英文摘要：
Mobile notifications have become a major communication channel for social networking services to keep users informed and engaged. As more mobile applications push notifications to users, they constantly face decisions on what to send, when and how. A lack of research and methodology commonly leads to heuristic decision making. Many notifications arrive at an inappropriate moment or introduce too many interruptions, failing to provide value to users and spurring users' complaints. In this paper we explore unique features of interactions between mobile notifications and user engagement. We propose a state transition framework to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of notifications. Within this framework, we develop a survival model for badging notifications assuming a log-linear structure and a Weibull distribution. Our results show that this model achieves more flexibility for applications and superior prediction accuracy than a logistic regression model. In particular, we provide an online use case on notification delivery time optimization to show how we make better decisions, drive more user engagement, and provide more value to users.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
