故障最小化的顺序选择
Sequential selections with minimization of failure
摘要：
决策者（DM）依次评估多达N个不同的、可排序的选项。DM必须在它出现的那一刻选择最好的一个。在搜索过程中，DM会与每位申请人一起确定她是否是迄今为止评估的最佳申请人（我们称他为候选人）。DM不能返回被拒绝的候选人。我们讨论的心理方面的选择问题，在文献中称为秘书的问题。分析是基于知识的机会，并接受的积极和消极影响DM的决定的主观评估。成功和失败的验收评估以主观量表呈现。我们设置了一个最佳策略，建议在某个时间点（阈值时间）之前分析申请人，而不选择任何一个，然后选择下一个遇到的候选人。确定的最佳阈值取决于对选择的积极和消极影响的接受程度。本文对这一问题进行了探讨。
英文摘要：
The decision-maker (DM) sequentially evaluates up to N of different, rankable options. DM must select exactly the best one at the moment of its appearance. In the process of searching, DM finds out with each applicant whether she is the best applicant among those assessed so far (we call him a candidate). DM cannot return to rejected candidates. We discuss the psychological aspects of this selection problem, known in the literature as the secretary problem. The analysis is based on knowledge of the chances, and a subjective assessment of acceptance of the positive and negative effects DM's decision. The acceptance assessment of success and failure is presented on subjective scales. We set an optimal policy that recommends analyzing applicants up to a certain point in time (a threshold time) without selecting any of them and then selecting the next encountered candidate. The determined optimal threshold depends on the level of acceptance of the positive and negative effects of the choice. This issue is discussed in the article.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
