风险分担与欧元的采用
Risk Sharing and the Adoption of the Euro
摘要：
本文实证评估了采用共同货币是否改变了欧元区成员国的消费平滑水平。我们通过合成控制法构建了一个宏观经济变量的反事实数据集。然后，我们使用Asdrubali，Sorensen和Yosha（1996）对实际数据和合成数据的输出方差分解来研究风险分担是否发生了变化以及通过哪些渠道发生了变化。我们发现，欧元的采用减少了风险分担和消费平滑。我们进一步表明，这种减少主要是由欧元区的外围国家谁经历了通过私人信贷的风险分担减少。
英文摘要：
This paper empirically evaluates whether adopting a common currency has changed the level of consumption smoothing of euro area member states. We construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables through the synthetic control method. We then use the output variance decomposition of Asdrubali, Sorensen and Yosha (1996) on both the actual and the synthetic data to study if there has been a change in risk sharing and through which channels. We find that the euro adoption has reduced risk sharing and consumption smoothing. We further show that this reduction is mainly driven by the periphery countries of the euro area who have experienced a decrease in risk sharing through private credit.
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