The disturbance storm time (Dst) index is an important and useful measurement in space weather research. It has been used to characterize the size and intensity of a geomagnetic storm. A negative Dst value means that the Earth's magnetic field is weakened, which happens during storms. In this paper, we present a novel deep learning method, called the Dst Transformer, to perform short-term, 1-6 hour ahead, forecasting of the Dst index based on the solar wind parameters provided by the NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive. The Dst Transformer combines a multi-head attention layer with Bayesian inference, which is capable of quantifying both aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty when making Dst predictions. Experimental results show that the proposed Dst Transformer outperforms related machine learning methods in terms of the root mean square error and R-squared. Furthermore, the Dst Transformer can produce both data and model uncertainty quantification results, which can not be done by the existing methods. To our knowledge, this is the first time that Bayesian deep learning has been used for Dst index forecasting.
Spatio-temporal data are ubiquitous in the agricultural, ecological, and environmental sciences, and their study is important for understanding and predicting a wide variety of processes. One of the difficulties with modeling spatial processes that change in time is the complexity of the dependence structures that must describe how such a process varies, and the presence of high-dimensional complex data sets and large prediction domains. It is particularly challenging to specify parameterizations for nonlinear dynamic spatio-temporal models (DSTMs) that are simultaneously useful scientifically…
Long-term prediction of multivariate time series is still an important but challenging problem. The key to solve this problem is to capture the spatial correlations at the same time, the spatio-temporal relationships at different times and the long-term dependence of the temporal relationships between different series. Attention-based recurrent neural networks (RNN) can effectively represent the dynamic spatio-temporal relationships between exogenous series and target series, but it only performs well in one-step time prediction and short-term time prediction. In this paper, inspired by human …
In a task-oriented dialog system, the goal of dialog state tracking (DST) is to monitor the state of the conversation from the dialog history. Recently, many deep learning based methods have been proposed for the task. Despite their impressive performance, current neural architectures for DST are typically heavily-engineered and conceptually complex, making it difficult to implement, debug, and maintain them in a production setting. In this work, we propose a simple but effective DST model based on BERT. In addition to its simplicity, our approach also has a number of other advantages: (a) the…
Memory-Efficient LLM Training with Dynamic Sparsity: From Stability to Practical Scaling
University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Nowadays, using vibration data in conjunction with pattern recognition methods is one of the most common fault detection strategies for structures. However, their performances depend on the features extracted from vibration data, the features selected to train the classifier, and the classifier used for pattern recognition. Deep learning facilitates the fault detection procedure by automating the feature extraction and selection, and classification procedure. Though, deep learning approaches have challenges in designing its structure and tuning its hyperparameters, which may result in a low ge…
Performance Evaluation of Deep Learning Models for Water Quality Index Prediction: A Comparative Study of LSTM, TCN, ANN, and MLP
Karakoram International University（喀喇昆仑国际大学）；China University of Geosciences（中国地质大学）；Hamdard University（哈姆达德大学）；Applied Science Private University（应用科学私立大学）；University of Sindh（信德大学）；University of Agriculture Faisalabad（费萨拉巴德农业大学）；Tianjin University（天津大学）；King Saud University（沙特国王大学）
KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics（数学等离子体天体物理学中心）
Models based on neural networks and machine learning are seeing a rise in popularity in space physics. In particular, the forecasting of geomagnetic indices with neural network models is becoming a popular field of study. These models are evaluated with metrics such as the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient. However, these classical metrics sometimes fail to capture crucial behavior. To show where the classical metrics are lacking, we trained a neural network, using a long short-term memory network, to make a forecast of the disturbance storm time index at origin…
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. A large body of research considers each ad independently, but ignores its relationship to other ads that may impact the CTR. In this paper, we investigate various types of auxiliary ads for improving the CTR prediction of the target ad. In particular, we explore auxiliary ads from two viewpoints: one is from the spatial domain, where we consider the contextual ads shown above the target ad on the same page; the other is from the temporal domain, where we consider historically clicked and unclicked ads of the …
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Texas Tech University（得克萨斯理工大学）
Electrical conduction among cardiac tissue is commonly modeled with partial differential equations, i.e., reaction-diffusion equation, where the reaction term describes cellular stimulation and diffusion term describes electrical propagation. Detecting and identifying of cardiac cells that produce abnormal electrical impulses in such nonlinear dynamic systems are important for efficient treatment and planning. To model the nonlinear dynamics, simulation has been widely used in both cardiac research and clinical study to investigate cardiac disease mechanisms and develop new treatment designs. …
Tracing Human Stress from Physiological Signals using UWB Radar
Guangzhou University（广州大学）；Guangxi University（广西大学）；Fudan University（复旦大学）；Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）；Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics（南京航空航天大学）；Singapore University of Technology and Design（新加坡科技设计大学）
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of Twente（特文特大学）
In this paper, we introduce a new perspective on training deep neural networks capable of state-of-the-art performance without the need for the expensive over-parameterization by proposing the concept of In-Time Over-Parameterization (ITOP) in sparse training. By starting from a random sparse network and continuously exploring sparse connectivities during training, we can perform an Over-Parameterization in the space-time manifold, closing the gap in the expressibility between sparse training and dense training. We further use ITOP to understand the underlying mechanism of Dynamic Sparse Train…
Deep Generative Machine Learning Models have been growing in popularity across the design community thanks to their ability to learn and mimic complex data distributions. While early works are promising, further advancement will depend on addressing several critical considerations such as design quality, feasibility, novelty, and targeted inverse design. We propose the Design Target Achievement Index (DTAI), a differentiable, tunable metric that scores a design's ability to achieve designer-specified minimum performance targets. We demonstrate that DTAI can drastically improve the performance …
Canadian University Dubai（迪拜加拿大大学）；Zayed University（扎耶德大学）
Stock price prediction has been the focus of a large amount of research but an acceptable solution has so far escaped academics. Recent advances in deep learning have motivated researchers to apply neural networks to stock prediction. In this paper, we propose a convolution-based neural network model for predicting the future value of the S&P 500 index. The proposed model is capable of predicting the next-day direction of the index based on the previous values of the index. Experiments show that our model outperforms a number of benchmarks achieving an accuracy rate of over 55%.
Whittle index policy is a powerful tool to obtain asymptotically optimal solutions for the notoriously intractable problem of restless bandits. However, finding the Whittle indices remains a difficult problem for many practical restless bandits with convoluted transition kernels. This paper proposes NeurWIN, a neural Whittle index network that seeks to learn the Whittle indices for any restless bandits by leveraging mathematical properties of the Whittle indices. We show that a neural network that produces the Whittle index is also one that produces the optimal control for a set of Markov deci…
Ericsson Research（爱立信研究院）；Netas（内塔斯公司）；Istanbul Technical University（伊斯坦布尔技术大学）
In this paper, deep learning (DL)-aided data detection of spatial multiplexing (SMX) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmission with index modulation (IM) (Deep-SMX-IM) has been proposed. Deep-SMX-IM has been constructed by combining a zero-forcing (ZF) detector and DL technique. The proposed method uses the significant advantages of DL techniques to learn transmission characteristics of the frequency and spatial domains. Furthermore, thanks to using subblockbased detection provided by IM, Deep-SMX-IM is a straightforward method, which eventually reveals reduced complexity. It has been…
Obesity is an important concern in public health, and Body Mass Index is one of the useful (and proliferant) measures. We use Convolutional Neural Networks to determine Body Mass Index from photographs in a study with 161 participants. Low data, a common problem in medicine, is addressed by reducing the information in the photographs by generating silhouette images. Results present with high correlation when tested on unseen data.
Time series forecasting is a hot spot in recent years. Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm is used for time series forecasting in previous research, but the forecasting effect is not as good as deep learning prediction methods such as methods based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM). The visibility graph generated from specific time series contains abundant network information, but the previous forecasting method did not effectively use the network information to forecast, resulting in relatively large prediction errors.…
We consider the problem of learning the optimal threshold policy for control problems. Threshold policies make control decisions by evaluating whether an element of the system state exceeds a certain threshold, whose value is determined by other elements of the system state. By leveraging the monotone property of threshold policies, we prove that their policy gradients have a surprisingly simple expression. We use this simple expression to build an off-policy actor-critic algorithm for learning the optimal threshold policy. Simulation results show that our policy significantly outperforms othe…
Automated Volume Corrected Mitotic Index Calculation Through Annotation-Free Deep Learning using Immunohistochemistry as Reference Standard
Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt（英戈尔施塔特应用技术大学）；The Schwarzman Animal Medical Center（施瓦茨曼动物医疗中心）；Institute of Veterinary Pathology, Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学兽医学病理学研究所）；Institute of Pathology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna（维也纳兽医大学病理学研究所）；Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg（埃尔朗根-纽伦堡大学）
Climate change impacts could cause progressive decrease of crop quality and yield, up to harvest failures. In particular, heat waves and other climate extremes can lead to localized food shortages and even threaten food security of communities worldwide. In this study, we apply a deep learning architecture for high resolution forecasting (300 m, 10 days) of the Leaf Area Index (LAI), whose dynamics has been widely used to model the growth phase of crops and impact of heat waves. LAI models can be computed at 0.1 degree spatial resolution with an auto regressive component adjusted with weather …
Large-scale industrial recommender systems are usually confronted with computational problems due to the enormous corpus size. To retrieve and recommend the most relevant items to users under response time limits, resorting to an efficient index structure is an effective and practical solution. The previous work Tree-based Deep Model (TDM) \cite{zhu2018learning} greatly improves recommendation accuracy using tree index. By indexing items in a tree hierarchy and training a user-node preference prediction model satisfying a max-heap like property in the tree, TDM provides logarithmic computation…
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
A deep convolutional fuzzy system (DCFS) on a high-dimensional input space is a multi-layer connection of many low-dimensional fuzzy systems, where the input variables to the low-dimensional fuzzy systems are selected through a moving window across the input spaces of the layers. To design the DCFS based on input-output data pairs, we propose a bottom-up layer-by-layer scheme. Specifically, by viewing each of the first-layer fuzzy systems as a weak estimator of the output based only on a very small portion of the input variables, we design these fuzzy systems using the WM Method. After the fir…
Mirae Asset Global Investments Co.,Ltd.（未来资产环球投资有限公司）
Index funds are substantially preferred by investors nowadays, and market sensitivities are instrumental in managing index funds. An index fund is a mutual fund aiming to track the returns of a predefined market index (e.g., the S&P 500). A basic strategy to manage an index fund is replicating the index's constituents and weights identically, which is, however, cost-ineffective and impractical. To address this issue, it is required to replicate the index partially with accurately predicted market sensitivities. Accordingly, we propose a novel partial-replication method via learning to predict …
In this paper we investigate Deep Learning Models using topological dynamical systems, index theory, and computational homology. These mathematical machinery was invented initially by Henri Poincare around 1900 and developed over time to understand shapes and dynamical systems whose structure and behavior is too complicated to solve for analytically but can be understood via global relationships. In particular, we show how individual neurons in a neural network can correspond to simplexes in a simplicial complex manifold approximation to the decision surface learned by the NN, and how these si…
Value-Monotonicity Matters: A Concordance Loss for Deep Survival Prediction
Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado School of Medicine（科罗拉多大学医学院放射肿瘤学系）；Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center（德克萨斯大学西南医学中心放射肿瘤学系）
Automated pavement distress detection via road images is still a challenging issue among pavement researchers and computer-vision community. In recent years, advancement in deep learning has enabled researchers to develop robust tools for analyzing pavement images at unprecedented accuracies. Nevertheless, deep learning models necessitate a big ground truth dataset, which is often not readily accessible for pavement field. In this study, we reviewed our previous study, which a labeled pavement dataset was presented as the first step towards a more robust, easy-to-deploy pavement condition asse…
