就业政策对企业期望实现的影响
Impact of an Employment Policy on Companies' Expectations Fulfilment
摘要：
我们研究了智利《就业保护法》（Ley de Protección del Empleo，EPL）对实现企业裁员预期的影响。我们使用针对全国范围内具有代表性的公司群体的月度调查。这种面板数据允许通过时间跟踪公司，并分析他们的期望和实际实现之间的匹配，以模拟他们的期望实现。我们通过一个logit模型，允许适度效应的期望实现的概率模型。结果表明，对于那些预计会解雇工人的公司，对于使用EPL的公司，他们最终离职的几率是那些没有使用EPL的公司的50%。与大公司相比，小公司在使用EPL时，如果他们宣布他们希望解雇工人，他们的期望实现概率增加了11.9%。
英文摘要：
We study the effect of Chile's Employment Protection Law (Ley de Protección del Empleo, EPL), a law which allowed temporal suspensions of job contracts in exceptional circumstances during the COVID-19 pandemic, on the fulfillment of firms' expectations regarding layoffs. We use monthly surveys directed at a representative group of firms in the national territory. This panel data allows to follow firms through time and analyze the match between their expectations and the actual realization to model their expectation fulfilment. We model the probability of expectation fulfilment through a logit model that allows for moderation effects. Results suggest that for those firms that expected to fire workers, for the firms that used the EPL, the odds they finally ended up with a job separation are 50% of the odds for those that did not used the EPL. Small firms increase their probability of expectation fulfilment in 11.9% when using the EPL compared to large firms if they declared they were expecting to fire workers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
