EU的燃油税削减对俄罗斯的石油收入有什么影响？
What is the effect of EU's fuel-tax cuts on Russia's oil income?
摘要：
在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后油价飙升之后，欧盟许多国家都在削减汽油和柴油税。利用标准理论和实证估计，我们评估了此类减税如何影响俄罗斯的石油收入。我们发现，从短期和长期来看，每升20欧分的减税将使俄罗斯的石油利润每天增加约1100万欧元。这相当于一年41亿欧元，占俄罗斯GDP的0.3%，或军费的7%。我们发现，向欧盟公民转移现金，与减税同等的财政负担，将这些副作用降低到一小部分。
英文摘要：
Following the oil-price surge in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many countries in the EU are cutting taxes on petrol and diesel. Using standard theory and empirical estimates, we assess how such tax cuts influence the oil income in Russia. We find that a tax cut of 20 euro cents per liter increase Russia's oil profits by around 11 million Euros per day in the short run and long run. This is equivalent to 4100 million Euros in a year, 0.3% of Russia's GDP or 7% of its military spending. We show that a cash transfer to EU citizens, with an equivalent fiscal burden as the tax cut, reduces these side effects to a fraction.
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