建立COVID-19疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展及其与抗体水平和传染性的联系的模型
Modeling COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunological memory development and its links to antibody level and infectiousness
摘要：
COVID-19疫苗已被证明对SARS-CoV-2感染有效。然而，疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展和中和抗体产生的动力学尚未完全了解，限制了疫苗开发和疫苗接种方案的确定。在此，我们构建了一个数学模型，以表征疫苗诱导的免疫反应的基础上拟合病毒感染和疫苗接种数据集。以CoronaVac为例，我们揭示了疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展与中和抗体水平之间的关联。完整的免疫记忆的建立需要在第一次和第二次注射后超过6个月，之后加强注射可以诱导高水平的中和抗体。通过引入病毒感染后的最大病毒载量和恢复时间，定量研究了疫苗对病毒感染的保护作用。因此，我们优化了疫苗接种方案，包括剂量和接种时机，并预测了第四剂的效果。最后，结合病毒传播模型，分析了疫苗接种对病毒传播的抑制作用，对公共卫生政策的制定具有一定的指导意义。
英文摘要：
COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the dynamics of vaccine-induced immunological memory development and neutralizing antibodies generation are not fully understood, limiting vaccine development and vaccination regimen determination. Herein, we constructed a mathematical model to characterize the vaccine-induced immune response based on fitting the viral infection and vaccination datasets. With the example of CoronaVac, we revealed the association between vaccine-induced immunological memory development and neutralizing antibody levels. The establishment of the intact immunological memory requires more than 6 months after the first and second doses, after that a booster shot can induce high levels neutralizing antibodies. By introducing the maximum viral load and recovery time after viral infection, we quantitatively studied the protective effect of vaccines against viral infection. Accordingly, we optimized the vaccination regimen, including dose and vaccination timing, and predicted the effect of the fourth dose. Last, by combining the viral transmission model, we showed the suppression of virus transmission by vaccination, which may be instructive for the development of public health policies.
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