技术与就业：一个系统的文献综述
Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review
摘要：
技术变革是创造还是破坏就业？新技术可能会取代人类工人，但如果需要工人使用这些技术或出现新的经济活动，则可以同时创造就业机会。此外，技术驱动的生产力增长可能会增加可支配收入，刺激需求引发的就业扩张。为了综合关于这一问题的现有知识，我们系统地回顾了过去四十年技术变革及其对就业影响的实证文献，区分了五大技术类别（ICT，机器人，创新，TFP式，其他）。总的来说，我们在研究中发现，技术的劳动力替代效应似乎被创造或恢复劳动力的补偿机制所抵消。这适用于大多数类型的技术，表明以前对广泛的技术驱动的失业的焦虑缺乏经验基础，至少到目前为止。然而，低技能、生产和制造工人受到了技术变革的不利影响，有效的提高技能和再培训战略应与有针对性的社会支持系统一起，继续处于政策制定的最前沿。
英文摘要：
Does technological change destroy or create jobs? New technologies may replace human workers, but can simultaneously create jobs if workers are needed to use these technologies or if new economic activities emerge. Furthermore, technology-driven productivity growth may increase disposable income, stimulating a demand-induced expansion of employment. To synthesize the existing knowledge on this question, we systematically review the empirical literature on the past four decades of technological change and its impact on employment, distinguishing between five broad technology categories (ICT, Robots, Innovation, TFP-style, Other). Overall, we find across studies that the labor-displacing effect of technology appears to be more than offset by compensating mechanisms that create or reinstate labor. This holds for most types of technology, suggesting that previous anxieties over widespread technology-driven unemployment lack an empirical base, at least so far. Nevertheless, low-skill, production, and manufacturing workers have been adversely affected by technological change, and effective up- and reskilling strategies should remain at the forefront of policy making along with targeted social support systems.
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