与未知合格球队的小组抽签：2022年FIFA世界杯抽签的教训
Group draw with unknown qualified teams: A lesson from the 2022 FIFA World Cup draw
摘要：
2022年FIFA世界杯的抽签已经在三名附加赛冠军的身份公布之前组织起来。种子是基于2022年3月31日发布的FIFA世界排名，但这三支球队是从最弱的第四档中抽出来的。我们表明，官方的播种政策并没有尽可能地平衡各组的难度水平：一个更好的选择是根据排名最高的潜在赢家分配占位符，类似于欧洲冠军联赛资格赛中使用的规则。我们的模拟强化了这是在FIFA世界杯中创建平衡组的最佳策略。
英文摘要：
The draw for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has been organised before the identity of three winners of the play-offs is revealed. Seeding has been based on the FIFA World Ranking released on 31 March 2022 but these three teams have been drawn from the weakest Pot 4. We show that the official seeding policy does not balance the difficulty levels of the groups to the extent possible: a better alternative would have been to assign the placeholders according to the highest-ranked potential winner, similar to the rule used in the UEFA Champions League qualification. Our simulations reinforce that this is the best strategy in general to create balanced groups in the FIFA World Cup.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
