了解欧洲农村和城市人口下降的轨迹：序列分析
Understanding the Trajectories of Population Decline Across Rural and Urban Europe: A Sequence Analysis
摘要：
预计欧洲人口将普遍下降，欧洲大陆人口将在未来五年内扭转其长期增长轨迹。这是一个陌生的人口领域。尽管如此，有关衰落的文献仍然很少，我们的理解也存在漏洞。认识论上的特别缺陷是由于缺乏对人口下降的跨国分析和时间分析。本研究旨在通过序列和聚类分析技术的新应用来解决这些差距，以检查自2000年以来在33个欧洲领土的696个次国家地区的人口下降轨迹的变化。该方法可以从整体上理解下降轨迹，捕捉人口下降的顺序，时间，幅度和空间结构的差异。我们确定了一个类型的人口下降区分七个不同的途径，人口减少和图表的地理。结果显示，各大陆次区域的人口减少途径各不相同，东部人口持续快速下降，中欧人口持续但适度下降，南部人口下降加速，西部人口下降减速。结果还显示，在整个农村-城市连续体中，人口减少的模式各不相同，城市和人口稠密地区的人口下降速度减缓，而农村地区的人口下降速度加快或稳定。中小型地区表现出异质性的人口减少轨迹，突出了当地的背景因素在影响人口下降的轨迹的重要性。
英文摘要：
Population decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth within the next five years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory. Despite this, literature on decline remains sparse and our understanding porous. Particular epistemological deficiencies stem from a lack of both cross-national and temporal analyses of population decline. This study seeks to address these gapsthrough the novel application of sequence and cluster analysis techniques to examine variations in population decline trajectories since 2000 in 696 sub-national areas across 33 European territories. The methodology allows for a holistic understanding of decline trajectories capturing differences in the ordering, timing, magnitude and spatial structure of population decline. We identify a typology of population decline distinguishing seven distinct pathways to depopulation and chart their geographies. Results revealed differentiated pathways of depopulation in continental sub-regions, with consistent and rapid declines in the east, persistent but moderate declines in central Europe, accelerating declines in the south and decelerating population declines in the west. Results also revealed differentiated patterns of depopulation across the rural-urban continuum, with urban and populous areas experiencing deceleration in population decline, while population decline accelerates or stabilises in rural areas. Small and mid-sized areas displayed heterogeneous depopulation trajectories, highlighting the importance of local contextual factors in influencing trajectories of population decline.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
