符号网络动力系统中作为分岔的和平与系统性战争之间的转换
Transitions between peace and systemic war as bifurcations in a signed network dynamical system
摘要：
我们调查的结构特征和过程与系统性冲突的发生，使用的方法，将复杂系统理论与网络建模和分析。我们提出了一个签署的网络模型的合作和冲突动态的背景下，国家之间的国际关系。该模型在结构平衡力和二元特定力的影响下发展节点之间的联系。模型模拟显示，从和平到系统性战争的结构平衡压力的增加，一个和平和战争稳定均衡存在的制度，从战争到和平的滞后反向分岔急剧分叉。我们展示了我们从和平到战争分叉条件推导出的解析表达式意味着极化网络结构增加了对系统性战争的敏感性。我们开发了一个框架，用于识别最不稳定的关系扰动模式，并将其应用于第一次世界大战前的欧洲大国网络。我们还表明，该模型表现出临界减速，其中扰动的和平平衡需要更长的时间衰减系统接近分岔。我们讨论了我们的研究结果如何与国际关系理论的原因和催化剂的系统性战争。
英文摘要：
We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.
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