地缘政治条约的多关系结构的弹性与过去的殖民世界秩序和离岸财政避风港密切相关
The resilience of the multirelational structure of geopolitical treaties is critically linked to past colonial world order and offshore fiscal havens
摘要：
世界政治和经济秩序的治理建立在各种地理范围的国际条约的复杂结构之上。在一个体制高度动荡的历史阶段，评估这种结构在单个国家单方面变节和单个条约崩溃方面的稳定性是重要的。我们对整个全球架构进行了分析，发现具有最高破坏潜力的国家不是世界大国（德国和法国除外），而是大多数中小和微型国家。政治稳定在很大程度上取决于许多前殖民地海外领土，这些领土今天已成为全球财政避风港网络的一部分，也取决于新兴经济体，主要是东南亚国家。经济稳定取决于中等规模的欧洲和非洲国家。然而，单一的全球条约具有令人惊讶的较小的破坏潜力，但世贸组织是一个主要例外。这些明显违反直觉的结果突出了非线性方法对国际关系的重要性，其中使用先进的网络科学技术分析了全球治理的复杂多层架构。我们的研究结果表明，世界秩序的潜在脆弱性与全球不平等和财政不公正的关系似乎比人们通常认为的要直接得多，而且殖民世界秩序的遗产在当前的国际关系情景中仍然非常强大。特别是，与避税有关的既得利益似乎在全球治理的政治架构中具有结构性作用
英文摘要：
The governance of the political and economic world order builds on a complex architecture of international treaties at various geographical scales. In a historical phase of high institutional turbulence, assessing the stability of such architecture with respect to the unilateral defection of single countries and to the breakdown of single treaties is important. We carry out this analysis on the whole global architecture and find that the countries with the highest disruption potential are not major world powers (with the exception of Germany and France) but mostly medium-small and micro-countries. Political stability is highly dependent on many former colonial overseas territories that are today part of the global network of fiscal havens, as well as on emerging economies, mostly from South-East Asia. Economic stability depends on medium sized European and African countries. However, single global treaties have surprisingly less disruptive potential, with the major exception of the WTO. These apparently counter-intuitive results highlight the importance to a nonlinear approach to international relations where the complex multilayered architecture of global governance is analyzed using advanced network science techniques. Our results suggest that the potential fragility of the world order seem to be much more directly related to global inequality and fiscal injustice than it is commonly believed, and that the legacy of the colonial world order is still very strong in the current international relations scenario. In particular, vested interests related to tax avoidance seem to have a structural role in the political architecture of global governance
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