对COVID-19感染的稳态行为反应使R返回到设定点1
Homeostatic behavioural response to COVID-19 infections returns R to a set-point of 1
摘要：
2019冠状病毒病大流行中的一个明显行为方面是人们对社区报告或观察到的感染人数的关注和反应。我们描述了一个简单的传染病传播模型，在大流行的情况下，人们的行为受到当前感染风险的影响，这种行为反应的行为稳态返回感染风险到一定的首选水平。该模型预测繁殖率$R$将集中在中值1附近，并且新感染数量的相对变化的相关度量将遵循标准柯西分布。对全球COVID-19数据的分析显示，估计的繁殖率中位数为1，并且从报告的新感染人数计算的相对变化的这一指标在总体和单个国家层面上都严格遵循标准柯西分布。
英文摘要：
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where people's behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection and where this behavioural response acts homeostatically to return infection risk to a certain preferred level. This model predicts that the reproduction rate $R$ will be centered around a median value of 1, and that a related measure of relative change in the number of new infections will follow the standard Cauchy distribution. Analysis of worldwide COVID-19 data shows that the estimated reproduction rate has a median of 1, and that this measure of relative change calculated from reported numbers of new infections closely follows the standard Cauchy distribution at both an overall and an individual country level.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
