一种估计麻疹病例动态检出率的建模方法
A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles case detection rates
摘要：
本文的主要思想是，与报告的麻疹病例相关的年龄可以用来估计未发现的麻疹感染人数。有些令人惊讶的是，即使年龄只到最近的一年，估计漏报可以在更快的时间，2周的时间尺度与麻疹传播。我通过关注经过充分研究的英国60个城市的数据集来描述这个想法，该数据集涵盖了1948年向全民医疗保健的过渡，因此，它是传染病监测中一个有趣的案例研究。最后，在论文的最后，我简要地评论了如何修改的方法可以应用到现代环境。
英文摘要：
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of underreporting can be generated at the much faster, 2 week time-scale associated with measles transmission. I describe this idea by focusing on the well-studied, 60 city United Kingdom data set, which covers the transition to universal healthcare in 1948, and is, as a result, an interesting case study in infectious disease surveillance. Finally, at the end of the paper, I comment briefly on how the approach can be modified for application to modern contexts.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
