Dependencies on the relative frequency of a state in the domain are common when modelling probabilistic dependencies on relational data. For instance, the likelihood of a school closure during an epidemic might depend on the proportion of infected pupils exceeding a threshold. Often, rather than depending on discrete thresholds, dependencies are continuous: for instance, the likelihood of any one mosquito bite transmitting an illness depends on the proportion of carrier mosquitoes. Current approaches usually only consider probabilities over possible worlds rather than over domain elements themselves. An exception are the recently introduced lifted Bayesian networks for conditional probability logic, which express discrete dependencies on probabilistic data. We introduce functional lifted Bayesian networks, a formalism that explicitly incorporates continuous dependencies on relative frequencies into statistical relational artificial intelligence, and compare and contrast them with lifted Bayesian networks for conditional probability logic. Incorporating relative frequencies is not only beneficial to modelling; it also provides a more rigorous approach to learning problems where training and test or application domains have different sizes. To this end, we provide a representation of the asymptotic probability distributions induced by functional lifted Bayesian networks on domains of increasing sizes. Since that representation has well-understood scaling behaviour across domain sizes, it can be used to estimate parameters for a large domain consistently from randomly sampled subpopulations. Furthermore, we show that in parametric families of FLBN, convergence is uniform in the parameters, which ensures a meaningful dependence of the asymptotic probabilities on the parameters of the model.
Recent years have seen a surge of interest in Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP) and Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) models that combine logic with probabilities. Structure learning of these systems is an intersection area of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) and statistical learning (SL). However, ILP cannot deal with probabilities, SL cannot model relational hypothesis. The biggest challenge of integrating these two machine learning frameworks is how to estimate the probability of a logic clause only from the observation of grounded logic atoms. Many current methods models a joint p…
Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Université de Technologie de Compiègne（贡比涅技术大学）；Google（谷歌）
Large-scale relational learning becomes crucial for handling the huge amounts of structured data generated daily in many application domains ranging from computational biology or information retrieval, to natural language processing. In this paper, we present a new neural network architecture designed to embed multi-relational graphs into a flexible continuous vector space in which the original data is kept and enhanced. The network is trained to encode the semantics of these graphs in order to assign high probabilities to plausible components. We empirically show that it reaches competitive p…
This paper investigates a representation language with flexibility inspired by probabilistic logic and compactness inspired by relational Bayesian networks. The goal is to handle propositional and first-order constructs together with precise, imprecise, indeterminate and qualitative probabilistic assessments. The paper shows how this can be achieved through the theory of credal networks. New exact and approximate inference algorithms based on multilinear programming and iterated/loopy propagation of interval probabilities are presented; their superior performance, compared to existing ones, is…
University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；IBM Research（IBM研究院）；MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab（麻省理工学院-IBM沃森人工智能实验室）；Goldman Sachs（高盛）；OPKO Diagnostics（OPKO诊断公司）
Sampling is an established technique to scale graph neural networks to large graphs. Current approaches however assume the graphs to be homogeneous in terms of relations and ignore relation types, critically important in biomedical graphs. Multi-relational graphs contain various types of relations that usually come with variable frequency and have different importance for the problem at hand. We propose an approach to modeling the importance of relation types for neighborhood sampling in graph neural networks and show that we can learn the right balance: relation-type probabilities that reflec…
Stochastic processes that involve the creation of objects and relations over time are widespread, but relatively poorly studied. For example, accurate fault diagnosis in factory assembly processes requires inferring the probabilities of erroneous assembly operations, but doing this efficiently and accurately is difficult. Modeled as dynamic Bayesian networks, these processes have discrete variables with very large domains and extremely high dimensionality. In this paper, we introduce relational dynamic Bayesian networks (RDBNs), which are an extension of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) to fir…
A Unifying Relational Perspective on Expressive Lottery Tickets
Faculty of Computer Science, University of Vienna（维也纳大学计算机科学学院）；Doctoral School Computer Science, University of Vienna（维也纳大学计算机科学博士学院）；CeMM Research Center for Molecular Medicine of the Austrian Academy of Sciences（奥地利科学院CeMM分子医学研究中心）；CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security（CISPA亥姆霍兹信息安全中心）；School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London（伦敦大学玛丽女王学院电子工程与计算机科学学院）；Research Network Data Science, University of Vienna（维也纳大学数据科学研究网络）
The past few years have seen a surge of interest in the field of probabilistic logic learning and statistical relational learning. In this endeavor, many probabilistic logics have been developed. ProbLog is a recent probabilistic extension of Prolog motivated by the mining of large biological networks. In ProbLog, facts can be labeled with probabilities. These facts are treated as mutually independent random variables that indicate whether these facts belong to a randomly sampled program. Different kinds of queries can be posed to ProbLog programs. We introduce algorithms that allow the effici…
University of Freiburg（弗莱堡大学）；Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）
Robots coexisting with humans in their environment and performing services for them need the ability to interact with them. One particular requirement for such robots is that they are able to understand spatial relations and can place objects in accordance with the spatial relations expressed by their user. In this work, we present a convolutional neural network for estimating pixelwise object placement probabilities for a set of spatial relations from a single input image. During training, our network receives the learning signal by classifying hallucinated high-level scene representations as…
A subtle difference between propositional and relational data is that in many relational models, marginal probabilities depend on the population or domain size. This paper connects the dependence on population size to the classic notion of projectivity from statistical theory: Projectivity implies that relational predictions are robust with respect to changes in domain size. We discuss projectivity for a number of common SRL systems, and identify syntactic fragments that are guaranteed to yield projective models. The syntactic conditions are restrictive, which suggests that projectivity is dif…
We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distribution…
Explaining Human Choice Probabilities with Simple Vector Representations
Dept. of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON Canada（心理学系，滑铁卢大学，滑铁卢，加拿大）；Centre for Theoretical Neuroscience, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON Canada（理论神经科学中心，滑铁卢大学，滑铁卢，加拿大）
KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；University of Washington, Seattle（西雅图华盛顿大学）
Lifted probabilistic inference algorithms have been successfully applied to a large number of symmetric graphical models. Unfortunately, the majority of real-world graphical models is asymmetric. This is even the case for relational representations when evidence is given. Therefore, more recent work in the community moved to making the models symmetric and then applying existing lifted inference algorithms. However, this approach has two shortcomings. First, all existing over-symmetric approximations require a relational representation such as Markov logic networks. Second, the induced symmetr…
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
The unification of logic and probability is a long-standing concern in AI, and more generally, in the philosophy of science. In essence, logic provides an easy way to specify properties that must hold in every possible world, and probability allows us to further quantify the weight and ratio of the worlds that must satisfy a property. To that end, numerous developments have been undertaken, culminating in proposals such as probabilistic relational models. While this progress has been notable, a general-purpose first-order knowledge representation language to reason about probabilities and dyna…
Fondazione Bruno Kessler（布鲁诺·凯塞勒基金会）；University of Trento（特伦托大学）
Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) define a probability distribution on relational structures over varying domain sizes. Many works have noticed that MLNs, like many other relational models, do not admit consistent marginal inference over varying domain sizes. Furthermore, MLNs learnt on a certain domain do not generalize to new domains of varied sizes. In recent works, connections have emerged between domain size dependence, lifted inference and learning from sub-sampled domains. The central idea to these works is the notion of projectivity. The probability distributions ascribed by projective mode…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
This paper develops upper and lower bounds for the probability of Boolean functions by treating multiple occurrences of variables as independent and assigning them new individual probabilities. We call this approach dissociation and give an exact characterization of optimal oblivious bounds, i.e. when the new probabilities are chosen independent of the probabilities of all other variables. Our motivation comes from the weighted model counting problem (or, equivalently, the problem of computing the probability of a Boolean function), which is #P-hard in general. By performing several dissociati…
