乘车服务是否应对计划外的铁路中断？流动弹性与差异的自然实验分析
Does ridesourcing respond to unplanned rail disruptions? A natural experiment analysis of mobility resilience and disparity
摘要：
在许多城市系统中，城市轨道交通网络提供了获得机会和生计的重要途径。确保这些服务具有复原力（即对中断作出有效反应并从中恢复）是一个关键的经济和社会优先事项。城市铁路系统应对中断的能力越来越多地取决于各种复杂的交通选择，其中替代模式可以补充和填补服务空白。这项研究分析了乘车在提供自适应移动能力方面的作用，这些能力可以用来填补轨道交通服务中的无通知缺口，解决弹性分布影响的问题。使用一个自然的实验，我们系统地确定了28个主要的交通中断在一年的时间在芝加哥和匹配，在时间和空间上，与乘车出行数据。使用多层次混合建模，我们量化的变化，在适应性使用的按需流动性在种族和经济上多样化的城市芝加哥。我们的研究结果表明，在轨道交通中断期间，自适应乘车的缺口填补潜力受到车站，社区和地区层面因素的显着影响。具体来说，在白人居民和公交通勤者比例较高的社区以及城市较富裕的北区，平日、非假日和更严重的干扰会发生更大程度的乘车转移。这些研究结果表明，虽然乘车服务似乎在铁路中断期间提供了适应能力，但对于已经经历有限流动性选择的低收入有色人种社区来说，其好处似乎并不公平。
英文摘要：
Urban rail transit networks provide critical access to opportunities and livelihood in many urban systems. Ensuring that these services are resilient (that is, exhibiting efficient response to and recovery from disruptions) is a key economic and social priority. Increasingly, the ability of urban rail systems to cope with disruptions is a function of a complex patchwork of mobility options, wherein alternative modes can complement and fill service gaps. This study analyzes the role of ridesourcing in providing adaptive mobility capacity that could be leveraged to fill no-notice gaps in rail transit services, addressing the question of distributional impacts of resilience. Using a natural experiment, we systematically identify 28 major transit disruptions over the period of one year in Chicago and match them, both temporally and spatially, with ridesourcing trip data. Using multilevel mixed modeling, we quantify variation in the adaptive use of on-demand mobility across the racially and economically diverse city of Chicago. Our findings show that the gap-filling potential of adaptive ridesourcing during rail transit disruptions is significantly influenced by station-, community-, and district-level factors. Specifically, greater shifts to ridesourcing occur during weekdays, nonholidays, and more severe disruptions, in community areas that have higher percentages of White residents and transit commuters, and in the more affluent North district of the city. These findings suggest that while ridesourcing appears to provide adaptive capacity during rail disruptions, its benefits do not appear to be equitable for lower-income communities of color that already experience limited mobility options.
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