亚马逊洪泛区的保护差距将随着气候变化而增加：来自世界上最大规模淡水鱼的见解
Protection gaps in Amazon floodplains will increase with climate change: Insight from the world's largest scaled freshwater fish
摘要：
亚马逊河漫滩是非常有价值的生态系统的重要表面，但它们仍然被忽视，没有保护区。虽然亚马逊流域的保护区网络的效率可能会受到气候变化的危害，洪泛区暴露于气候变化的重要后果，但从物种分布模型和保护差距分析被忽略。我们模拟了巨骨舌鱼Arapaima sp.的当前和未来（2070年）分布，考虑了气候和栖息地的要求，并考虑了大坝的存在（已经存在和计划建设）和水文周期（高水位和低水位）。我们进一步量化了现有保护区网络内外的适宜环境数量，以确定空间保护差距。气候变化导致丰水期环境适宜度下降16.6%，枯水期下降19.4%。我们发现，大约70%的Arapaima sp.的适宜环境目前仍然没有受到保护，随着未来气候变化的影响，这一比例可能会增加5%。目前和计划中的水坝建设都可能阻碍盆地中部与玻利维亚和秘鲁部分之间的人口流动。我们强调保护差距主要在盆地的西南部，并建议在上游乌卡亚利河，Juruà河和Purus河及其支流的洪泛区扩大目前的保护区网络。这项研究表明，在预测淡水鱼类的分布时，必须考虑到水文周期和扩散障碍，并强调迫切需要将洪泛区纳入保护区网络。
英文摘要：
The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. While the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardised by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distribution models and protection gap analyses. We modelled the current and future (2070) distribution of the giant bony-tongue fish Arapaima sp. accounting for climate and habitat requirements, with consideration of dam presence (already existing and planned constructions) and hydroperiod (high- and low-water stages). We further quantified the amount of suitable environment which falls inside and outside the current network of protected areas to identify spatial conservation gaps. We predict climate change to cause the decline of environmental suitability by 16.6% during the high-water stage, and by 19.4% during the low-water stage. We found that about 70% of the suitable environments of Arapaima sp. remain currently unprotected, which is likely to increase by 5% with future climate change effects. Both current and projected dam constructions may hamper population flows between the central and the Bolivian and Peruvian parts of the basin. We highlight protection gaps mostly in the southwestern part of the basin and recommend the extension of the current network of protected areas in the floodplains of the upper Ucayali, Juruà and Purus Rivers and their tributaries. This study showed the importance of taking into account hydroperiods and dispersal barriers in forecasting the distribution of freshwater fish species, and stresses the urgent need to integrate floodplains to the protected area networks.
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