行为流行病学：一个评估流行病中最佳政策的经济模型
Behavioral epidemiology: An economic model to evaluate optimal policy in the midst of a pandemic
摘要：
本文将疾病动力学的典型流行病学模型与政府的封锁和检测政策以及代理人为避免被感染而决定的社会距离相结合。该模型使用美国的死亡和测试结果数据进行校准。结果表明，一个中间，但长期的封锁是社会最优的死亡率和GDP时，考虑到。这是因为政府希望经济继续产生一些产出，而减少感染方面的松懈被社会距离代理人所弥补。保持社会距离是对政府最佳政策的最佳回应，以保持有效生殖数量为1，并避免在大流行期间出现多波。校准表明检测是有效的，但如果从大流行开始就积极开展检测，它可能会更有用。没有任何封锁或关闭社交距离会产生极端的后果。加强对社会活动的集中控制将进一步减缓大流行病的传播。
英文摘要：
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths and testing outcomes in the Unites States. It is shown that an intermediate but prolonged lockdown is socially optimal when both mortality and GDP are taken into account. This is because the government wants the economy to keep producing some output and the slack in reducing infection is picked up by social distancing agents. Social distancing best responds to the optimal government policy to keep the effective reproductive number at one and avoid multiple waves through the pandemic. Calibration shows testing to have been effective, but it could have been even more instrumental if it had been aggressively pursued from the beginning of the pandemic. Not having any lockdown or shutting down social distancing would have had extreme consequences. Greater centralized control on social activities would have mitigated further the spread of the pandemic.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
