缓解量子炒作
Mitigating the quantum hype
摘要：
我们正处于量子炒作之中，一些人过度宣称量子计算的潜力，许多供应商甚至一些研究机构的夸大，以及对技术准备程度非常低的初创公司的资金狂热。各国政府正在通过他们的大型量子计划和他们的技术主权愿望来推动这种炒作。技术炒作本身并不坏，因为它们创造了竞争，推动了创新，也有助于吸引新的人才。它的工作原理是，科学家和供应商在所谓的期望峰值之后持续不断地取得进展和创新。它因夸大的过度承诺和持续时间过长的交付不足而失败。它可能会削减研究和创新资金，造成某种量子冬天。在研究了技术和科学炒作的形状和形式，并从过去的炒作中吸取了一些教训之后，我们调查了当前的量子炒作及其细节。我们发现，尽管创造真正可扩展的量子计算机的潜力存在一些重大的不确定性，但与其他技术炒作相比，科学和供应商领域相对理智和可靠。供应商的炒作对基础研究的组织产生了一些深刻的破坏性影响。此外，量子技术还包括其他领域，如量子电信和量子传感，它们具有更高的技术准备水平，不太容易被炒作。然后，我们提出了一些建议，以减轻当前量子炒作的潜在负面影响，包括关于科学传播的建议，以加强对量子科学的信任，供应商行为的改善，基准方法，公众教育以及制定负责任的研究和创新方法。
英文摘要：
We are in the midst of quantum hype with some excessive claims of quantum computing potential, many vendors' and even some research organizations' exaggerations, and a funding frenzy for very low technology readiness level startups. Governments are contributing to this hype with their large quantum initiatives and their technology sovereignty aspirations. Technology hypes are not bad per se since they create emulation, drive innovations and also contribute to attracting new talents. It works as scientists and vendors deliver progress and innovation on a continuous basis after a so-called peak of expectations. It fails with exaggerated overpromises and underdeliveries that last too long. It could cut short research and innovation funding, creating some sort of quantum winter. After looking at the shape and form of technology and science hypes and driving some lessons from past hypes, we investigate the current quantum hype and its specifics. We find that, although there is some significant uncertainty on the potential to create real scalable quantum computers, the scientific and vendor fields are relatively sane and solid compared to other technology hypes. The vendors hype has some profound and disruptive impact on the organization of fundamental research. Also, quantum technologies comprise other fields like quantum telecommunications and quantum sensing with a higher technology readiness level, which are less prone to hype. We then make some proposals to mitigate the potential negative effects of the current quantum hype including recommendations on scientific communication to strengthen the trust in quantum science, vendor behavior improvements, benchmarking methodologies, public education and putting in place a responsible research and innovation approach.
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