大流行并发洪水疏散中的保护或跟随人群的危险
Protection or Peril of Following the Crowd in a Pandemic-Concurrent Flood Evacuation
摘要：
在气候灾害期间是否以及如何撤离的决定受到广泛因素的影响，包括社会人口统计学，紧急信息和社会影响。当多个危险同时发生时，会带来进一步的复杂性，例如在病毒大流行期间发生的洪水疏散，需要物理距离。这种多重灾害事件可能需要对相互竞争的决策战略进行细致入微的导航，其中要权衡追随同行的愿望与传染风险。为了更好地了解这些细微差别，我们在2020年7月疫情激增期间向美国中西部三个州和南部三个洪水风险高的州的600名个人分发了一份在线调查。本文在偏好空间和支付意愿空间中估计了一个随机参数logit模型。我们的研究结果表明，同伴选择是否以及如何撤离的影响的方向性和程度在受访者之间差异很大。总体而言，同伴行为对是否疏散的决策有积极影响，而同伴行为对如何疏散的决策有消极影响。此外，洪水威胁级别的增加降低了这些影响的程度。这些发现对设计有针对性的紧急信息战略具有重要意义。具体而言，在多灾害情景中强调或不强调每种威胁的严重性可能有助于：（1）鼓励重新优先考虑相互竞争的风险感知;（2）放大或中和社会影响的影响，从而（3）推动疏散决策朝着预期的结果发展。
英文摘要：
The decisions of whether and how to evacuate during a climate disaster are influenced by a wide range of factors, including sociodemographics, emergency messaging, and social influence. Further complexity is introduced when multiple hazards occur simultaneously, such as a flood evacuation taking place amid a viral pandemic that requires physical distancing. Such multi-hazard events can necessitate a nuanced navigation of competing decision-making strategies wherein a desire to follow peers is weighed against contagion risks. To better understand these nuances, we distributed an online survey during a pandemic surge in July 2020 to 600 individuals in three midwestern and three southern states in the United States with high risk of flooding. In this paper, we estimate a random parameter logit model in both preference space and willingness-to-pay space. Our results show that the directionality and magnitude of the influence of peers' choices of whether and how to evacuate vary widely across respondents. Overall, the decision of whether to evacuate is positively impacted by peer behavior, while the decision of how to evacuate is negatively impacted by peers. Furthermore, an increase in flood threat level lessens the magnitude of these impacts. These findings have important implications for the design of tailored emergency messaging strategies. Specifically, emphasizing or deemphasizing the severity of each threat in a multi-hazard scenario may assist in: (1) encouraging a reprioritization of competing risk perceptions and (2) magnifying or neutralizing the impacts of social influence, thereby (3) nudging evacuation decision-making toward a desired outcome.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
