Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for such extreme events. In this paper, we focus on short-term extreme precipitation forecasting (up to a 12-hour ahead-of-time prediction) from a sequence of sea level pressure and zonal wind anomalies. Although existing machine learning approaches have shown promising results, the associated model and climate uncertainties may reduce their reliability. To address this issue, we propose a self-attention augmented convolution mechanism for extreme precipitation forecasting, systematically combining attention scores with traditional convolutions to enrich feature data and reduce the expected errors of the results. The proposed network architecture is further fused with a highway neural network layer to gain the benefits of unimpeded information flow across several layers. Our experimental results show that the framework outperforms classical convolutional models by 12%. The proposed method increases machine learning as a tool for gaining insights into the physical causes of changing extremes, lowering uncertainty in future forecasts.
Research Institute for Infrastructure Paradigm Shift, Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd.（基础设施范式转换研究所，八千代工程株式会社）
Recently, flood damage has become a social problem owing to unexperienced weather conditions arising from climate change. An immediate response to heavy rain is important for the mitigation of economic losses and also for rapid recovery. Spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts may enhance the accuracy of dam inflow prediction, more than 6 hours forward for flood damage mitigation. However, the ordinary ConvLSTM has the limitation of predictable range more than 3-timesteps in real-world precipitation forecasting owing to the irreducible bias between target prediction and ground-truth value. This…
Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km$^2$ and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic…
The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning in meteorological post-processing, input forecast images were combined and transformed into probabilistic output forecast images using fully convolutional neural networks. CNNs did not outperform regularized logistic regression. Additionally, an ablation analysis was performed. Combining input forecasts from a global low-resolution weather model and a regiona…
Forecasting precipitation in the Arctic using probabilistic machine learning informed by causal climate drivers
Department of Science and Engineering, Sorbonne University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates（Sorbonne大学科学与工程系）；Physics and Applied Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata 700108, India（印度统计研究院应用数学与物理单元）；Sorbonne Center for Artificial Intelligence, Sorbonne University, Paris, 75005, France（Sorbonne大学人工智能中心）；Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar 382355, India（印度理工学院冈丁加尔分校）；National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Vasco da Gama, 403804, India（国家极地与海洋研究中心）；Center for Computational Natural Science and Bioinformatics, International Institute of Information Technology, Gachibowli, Hyderabad-500032, India（国际信息技术研究所计算自然科学与生物信息中心）；Department of Dynamics, Lodz University of Technology, Stefanowskiego 1/15, 90–537 Lodz, Poland（Lodz技术大学动力学系）；Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India（贾瓦德普大学数学生物学与生态中心）
The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on physics and use supercomputers to simulate the atmosphere to make forecasts hours and days in advance. Better physics-based forecasts require improvements in the models themselves, which can be a substantial scientific challenge, as well as improvements in the underlying resolution, which can be computationally prohibitive. An emerging class of weather mode…
Graduate School of Engineering（工学研究生院）；University of Yamanashi（山梨大学）；Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering（土木与环境工程系）；National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)（日本国立地球科学与防灾研究所（NIED））
With the accumulation of meteorological big data, data-driven models for short-term precipitation forecasting have shown increasing promise. We focus on Koopman operator analysis, which is a data-driven scheme to discover governing laws in observed data. We propose a method to apply this scheme to phenomena accompanying advection currents such as precipitation. The proposed method decomposes time evolutions of the phenomena between advection currents under a velocity field and changes in physical quantities under Lagrangian coordinates. The advection currents are estimated by kinematic analysi…
Chiang Mai University（清迈大学）；Data Science Research Center（数据科学研究中心）
Short-term precipitation forecasting is essential for planning of human activities in multiple scales, ranging from individuals' planning, urban management to flood prevention. Yet the short-term atmospheric dynamics are highly nonlinear that it cannot be easily captured with classical time series models. On the other hand, deep learning models are good at learning nonlinear interactions, but they are not designed to deal with the seasonality in time series. In this study, we aim to develop a forecasting model that can both handle the nonlinearities and detect the seasonality hidden within the…
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional physical models remains a major challenge in operational weather forecasting as they incur substantial computational costs and struggle to achieve sufficient forecast skill. Recently, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in closing the gap with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in terms of precipitation forecast skill, opening up excit…
Diffusion Precipitation Generation with Medium-range Weather Forecasting
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；The Hong Kong University of S & T（香港科技大学）；Sun Yat-Sen University（中山大学）；NSCC-SZ（国家超级计算深圳中心）；China Meteorological Administration（中国气象局）；GBA Weather Research Center（粤港澳大湾区天气研究中心）；Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd（华为技术有限公司）
Advanced Torrential Loss Function for Precipitation Forecasting
AI/ML Innovation Research Center, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea（AI/ML创新研究中心， Chung-Ang大学）；Advanced Radar Research Center, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA（先进雷达研究中心，俄克拉荷马大学）；School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA（气象学院，俄克拉荷马大学）；Weather Radar Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul 07062, Republic of Korea（天气雷达中心，韩国气象厅）；Department of Artificial Intelligence, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea（人工智能系，Chung-Ang大学）
Enhancing the Forecasting Capability of Multi-Model Blending Algorithms for Extreme Precipitation via Joint Use of Station and Gridded Observations
National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration（中国气象局国家气象中心）；Xiong’an Institute of Meteorological Artificial Intelligence（雄安气象人工智能研究所）；China Meteorological Administration Training Center（中国气象局培训中心）
Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal Forecasting
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada（纯数学与应用数学研究所）；nLine Inc.（nLine公司）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution（伍兹霍尔海洋研究所）；Atmospheric and Environmental Research（大气与环境研究公司）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Microsoft Research New England（微软研究院新英格兰分部）
Towards Location-Specific Precipitation Projections Using Deep Neural Networks
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology（印度热带气象研究所）；National Institute of Technology Rourkela（鲁尔克拉国家理工学院）；Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune（浦那印度科学教育与研究学院）；India Meteorology Department（印度气象部门）
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we present an approach to forecasting the quantiles of the maximum daily precipitation in each week up to six months ahead using the temporal fusion transformer (TFT) model. Through experiments in two regions, we compare TFT predictions with those of two baselines: climatology and a calibrated ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble forecast (S5). Our results show that, in terms of…
NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Rice University（莱斯大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at $0.25^{\circ}$ resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated F…
Weather forecasting is dominated by numerical weather prediction that tries to model accurately the physical properties of the atmosphere. A downside of numerical weather prediction is that it is lacking the ability for short-term forecasts using the latest available information. By using a data-driven neural network approach we show that it is possible to produce an accurate precipitation nowcast. To this end, we propose SmaAt-UNet, an efficient convolutional neural networks-based on the well known UNet architecture equipped with attention modules and depthwise-separable convolutions. We eval…
PCSDiff: Diffusion-Based Bias Correction and Super Resolution Toward Practical Operational Medium-Term Precipitation Forecast
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd（华为技术有限公司）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Beijing Forestry University（北京林业大学）；National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration（中国气象局国家气候中心）；National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China（中国应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院）
Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting
University of California Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）；San Diego State University（圣地亚哥州立大学）；University of Oklahoma（俄克拉荷马大学）；NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography（NSF可信AI天气、气候与海岸海洋研究所）
Cross-LKTCN: Modern Convolution Utilizing Cross-Variable Dependency for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Dependency for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Central South University（中南大学）；Hisense TransTech Co., Ltd.（海信网络科技股份有限公司）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental and challenging task in the field of intelligent transportation. Accurate forecasting not only depends on the historical traffic flow information but also needs to consider the influence of a variety of external factors, such as weather conditions and surrounding POI distribution. Recently, spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks have become traffic forecasting research hotspots and have made significant progress. However, few works integrate external factors. Therefore, based on the assumption that intro…
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but arbitrary quantiles of the distribution, and thus allows them to be applied to VaR-forecasting. The proposed model can learn from the price history of different assets, and it seems to produce fairly accurate forecasts.
Global spatio-temporal downscaling of ERA5 precipitation through generative AI
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)（气象与气候研究所——大气环境研究（IMK-IFU））；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Trace Gases and Remote Sensing (IMK-ASF)（气象与气候研究所——大气痕量气体与遥感（IMK-ASF））；University of Augsburg（奥格斯堡大学）
As an important part of intelligent transportation systems, traffic forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from academia and industry. Despite a lot of methods being proposed for traffic forecasting, it is still difficult to model complex spatial-temporal dependency. Temporal dependency includes short-term dependency and long-term dependency, and the latter is often overlooked. Spatial dependency can be divided into two parts: distance-based spatial dependency and hidden spatial dependency. To model complex spatial-temporal dependency, we propose a novel framework for traffic forecasti…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Warsaw（华沙大学）
Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen the access to accurate multi-day forecasts, to mitigate against such events. However, there is currently no benchmark dataset dedicated to the study of global precipitation forecasts. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{RainBench}, a new multi-modal benchmark dataset for data-driven precipitation forecasting. It includes simulated satellite data, a selection …
Pontifical Catholic University of Parana (PUCPR)（巴拉那天主教大学）；Federal Technological University of Parana (UTFPR)（巴拉那联邦理工大学）；Federal University of Parana (UFPR)（巴拉那联邦大学）
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a public health problem once according to the World Health Organization up to June 10th, 2020, more than 7.1 million people were infected, and more than 400 thousand have died worldwide. In the current scenario, the Brazil and the United States of America present a high daily incidence of new cases and deaths. It is important to forecast the number of new cases in a time window of one week, once this can help the public health system developing strategic planning to deals with the COVID-19. In this paper, Bayesian regression neural network, cubist re…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；INRIX, Inc.（因瑞克斯公司）
Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between t…
RainBalance: Alleviating Dual Imbalance in GNSS-based Precipitation Nowcasting via Continuous Probability Modeling
Sanya Science and Education Innovation Park, Wuhan University of Technology（武汉理工大学三亚科技创新园）；Wuhan University of Technology（武汉理工大学）；School of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Wuhan University of Technology（武汉理工大学计算机科学与人工智能学院）；School of Earth and Space Science and Technology, Wuhan University（武汉大学地球空间科学与技术学院）；Wuhan University（武汉大学）；School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University（武汉大学水利水电工程学院）；GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University（武汉大学GNSS研究中心）
One unique property of time series is that the temporal relations are largely preserved after downsampling into two sub-sequences. By taking advantage of this property, we propose a novel neural network architecture that conducts sample convolution and interaction for temporal modeling and forecasting, named SCINet. Specifically, SCINet is a recursive downsample-convolve-interact architecture. In each layer, we use multiple convolutional filters to extract distinct yet valuable temporal features from the downsampled sub-sequences or features. By combining these rich features aggregated from mu…
Traffic speed forecasting is one of the core problems in transportation systems. For a more accurate prediction, recent studies started using not only the temporal speed patterns but also the spatial information on the road network through the graph convolutional networks. Even though the road network is highly complex due to its non-Euclidean and directional characteristics, previous approaches mainly focused on modeling the spatial dependencies using the distance only. In this paper, we identify two essential spatial dependencies in traffic forecasting in addition to distance, direction and …
Prediction of movements is essential for successful cooperation with intelligent systems. We propose a model that integrates organized spatial information as given through the moving body's skeletal structure. This inherent structure is exploited in our model through application of Graph Convolutions and we demonstrate how this allows leveraging the structured spatial information into competitive predictions that are based on a lightweight model that requires a comparatively small number of parameters.
Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo（东京大学卡弗里数物连携宇宙研究机构（世界顶级国际研究中心））
In this work we propose a novel approach to utilize convolutional neural networks for time series forecasting. The time direction of the sequential data with spatial dimensions $D=1,2$ is considered democratically as the input of a spatiotemporal $(D+1)$-dimensional convolutional neural network. Latter then reduces the data stream from $D +1 \to D$ dimensions followed by an incriminator cell which uses this information to forecast the subsequent time step. We empirically compare this strategy to convolutional LSTM's and LSTM's on their performance on the sequential MNIST and the JSB chorals da…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting …
Bigo Inc.（Bigo公司）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；IBM China CIC（IBM中国创新中心）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric settings. More specifically, stacked residual blocks based on dilated causal convolutional nets are constructed to capture the temporal dependencies of the series. Combined with representation learning, our approach is able to learn complex patterns such as seasonality, holiday effects within and across series, and to leverage those patterns for more accurate for…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Didi Research Institute, Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行滴滴研究院）
Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of spatial-temporal learning task in Intelligent Traffic System. Existing approaches capture spatial dependency with a pre-determined matrix in graph convolution neural operators. However, the explicit graph structure losses some hidden representations of relationships among nodes. Furthermore, traditional graph convolution neural operators cannot aggregate long-range nodes on the graph. To overcome these limits, we propose a novel network, Spatial-Temporal Adaptive graph convolution with Attention Network (STAAN) for traffic forecasting. Firstly, w…
National Central University（国立中央大学）；National Pingtung University（国立屏东大学）；Jiangxi University of Science and Technology（江西理工大学）
In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to rapidly provide hourly forecasting in the energy market. To improve prediction accuracy, we divide the annual electricity price data into four categories by seasons and conduct training and forecasting for each category respectively. By comparing the proposed method with other existing methods, we find that the proposed mode…
Precipitation forecasting is an important scientific challenge that has wide-reaching impacts on society. Historically, this challenge has been tackled using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, grounded on physics-based simulations. Recently, many works have proposed an alternative approach, using end-to-end deep learning (DL) models to replace physics-based NWP models. While these DL methods show improved performance and computational efficiency, they exhibit limitations in long-term forecasting and lack the explainability. In this work, we present a hybrid NWP-DL workflow to fill the …
Kumamoto University（熊本大学）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Sun Yat-Sen University（中山大学）
Deep learning has been utilized for the statistical downscaling of climate data. Specifically, a two-dimensional (2D) convolutional neural network (CNN) has been successfully applied to precipitation estimation. This study implements a three-dimensional (3D) CNN to estimate watershed-scale daily precipitation from 3D atmospheric data and compares the results with those for a 2D CNN. The 2D CNN is extended along the time direction (3D-CNN-Time) and the vertical direction (3D-CNN-Vert). The precipitation estimates of these extended CNNs are compared with those of the 2D CNN in terms of the root-…
