输电系统运营商使用的动态热线路额定值的不确定性评估
Uncertainty Assessment of Dynamic Thermal Line Rating for Operational Use at Transmission System Operators
摘要：
近年来，传输系统运营商（TSO）面临着挑战，以确保系统的最大传输容量以满足市场需求，同时保持操作安全性和对环境的允许影响。动态热额定值（DTR）对决策过程有很大帮助，DTR是一种根据天气测量和预报监测和预测电网最大允许载流量的仪器。然而，DTR的引入引起了一些与热评估结果的准确性和不确定性以及可接受的风险水平及其管理有关的问题。在本文中，我们提出了一个解决方案，估计DTR的不确定性，适用于TSO的业务使用。利用导线表面温度测量、气象测量和气象预报数据，对气象预报误差和DTR本身的误差进行了估计。根据数据分析的结果，我们建立了一个可操作的解决方案，估计基于蒙特卡罗随机模拟的载流量的不确定性，并将其集成到ELES的操作环境-斯洛文尼亚电力传输网络的运营商。
英文摘要：
Transmission system operators (TSOs) in recent years have faced challenges in order to ensure maximum transmission capacity of the system to satisfy market needs, while maintaining operational safety and permissible impact on the environment. A great help in the decision-making process was introduced with the Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) - an instrument to monitor and predict the maximal allowed ampacity of the power grid based on weather measurements and forecast. However, the introduction of DTR raises a number of questions related to the accuracy and uncertainty of the results of thermal assessment and the level of acceptable risk and its management. In this paper, we present a solution for estimating DTR uncertainty, appropriate for operational use at TSOs. With the help of conductor surface temperature measurements, weather measurements and predicted weather data, we also estimate the error of the weather forecast and the DTR itself. Following the results of the data analyses, we build an operative solution for estimating the ampacity uncertainty based on Monte Carlo random simulations and integrate it into the operational environment of ELES - the operator of the Slovenian electric power transmission network.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
