From denial-of-service attacks to spreading of ransomware or other malware across an organization's network, it is possible that manually operated defenses are not able to respond in real time at the scale required, and when a breach is detected and remediated the damage is already made. Autonomous cyber defenses therefore become essential to mitigate the risk of successful attacks and their damage, especially when the response time, effort and accuracy required in those defenses is impractical or impossible through defenses operated exclusively by humans. Autonomous agents have the potential to use ML with large amounts of data about known cyberattacks as input, in order to learn patterns and predict characteristics of future attacks. Moreover, learning from past and present attacks enable defenses to adapt to new threats that share characteristics with previous attacks. On the other hand, autonomous cyber defenses introduce risks of unintended harm. Actions arising from autonomous defense agents may have harmful consequences of functional, safety, security, ethical, or moral nature. Here we focus on machine learning training, algorithmic feedback, and algorithmic constraints, with the aim of motivating a discussion on achieving trust in autonomous cyber defenses.
With the recognition of cyberspace as an operating domain, concerted effort is now being placed on addressing it in the whole-of-domain manner found in land, sea, undersea, air, and space domains. Among the first steps in this effort is applying the standard supporting concepts of security, defense, and deterrence to the cyber domain. This paper presents an architecture that helps realize forward defense in cyberspace, wherein adversarial actions are repulsed as close to the origin as possible. However, substantial work remains in making the architecture an operational reality including furthe…
The Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) is a vital element in the current development of the smart grid. AMI technologies provide electric utilities with an effective way of continuous monitoring and remote control of smart grid components. However, owing to its increasing scale and cyber-physical nature, the AMI has been faced with security threats in both cyber and physical domains. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the crucial cyber-physical attacks and counter defense mechanisms in the AMI. First, two attack surfaces are surveyed in the AMI including the communication networ…
Within the future Global Information Grid, complex massively interconnected systems, isolated defense vehicles, sensors and effectors, and infrastructures and systems demanding extremely low failure rates, to which human security operators cannot have an easy access and cannot deliver fast enough reactions to cyber-attacks, need an active, autonomous and intelligent cyber defense. Multi Agent Systems for Cyber Defense may provide an answer to this requirement. This paper presents the concept and architecture of an Autonomous Intelligent Cyber defense Agent (AICA). First, we describe the ration…
This report - a major revision of its previous release - describes a reference architecture for intelligent software agents performing active, largely autonomous cyber-defense actions on military networks of computing and communicating devices. The report is produced by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Research Task Group (RTG) IST-152 "Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defense and Resilience". In a conflict with a technically sophisticated adversary, NATO military tactical networks will operate in a heavily contested battlefield. Enemy software cyber agents - malware - will…
In the coming years, the future of military combat will include, on one hand, artificial intelligence-optimized complex command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) and networks and, on the other hand, autonomous intelligent Things fighting autonomous intelligent Things at a fast pace. Under this perspective, enemy forces will seek to disable or disturb our autonomous Things and our complex infrastructures and systems. Autonomy, scale and complexity in our defense systems will trigger new cyber-attack strategies, and autonomous intelligent …
It is challenging for a security analyst to detect or defend against cyber-attacks. Moreover, traditional defense deployment methods require the security analyst to manually enforce the defenses in the presence of uncertainties about the defense to deploy. As a result, it is essential to develop an automated and resilient defense deployment mechanism to thwart the new generation of attacks. In this paper, we propose a framework based on Markov Decision Process (MDP) and Q-learning to automatically generate optimal defense solutions for networked system states. The framework consists of four ph…
COVID-19 (Coronavirus) hit the global society and economy with a big surprise. In particular, work-from-home has become a new norm for employees. Despite the fact that COVID-19 can equally attack innocent people and cybercriminals, it is ironic to see surges in cyberattacks leveraging COVID-19 as a theme, dubbed COVID-19 themed cyberattacks or COVID-19 attacks for short, which represent a new phenomenon that has yet to be systematically understood. In this paper, we make the first step towards fully characterizing the landscape of these attacks, including their sophistication via the Cyber Kil…
Deception techniques have been widely seen as a game changer in cyber defense. In this paper, we review representative techniques in honeypots, honeytokens, and moving target defense, spanning from the late 1980s to the year 2021. Techniques from these three domains complement with each other and may be leveraged to build a holistic deception based defense. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been a work that provides a systematic retrospect of these three domains all together and investigates their integrated usage for orchestrated deceptions. Our paper aims to fill this gap.…
Intelligent autonomous agents will be widely present on the battlefield of the future. The proliferation of intelligent agents is the emerging reality of warfare, and they will form an ever growing fraction of total military assets. By necessity, intelligent autonomous cyber defense agents are likely to become primary cyber fighters on the future battlefield. Initial explorations have identified the key functions, components and their interactions for a potential reference architecture of such an agent. However, it is beyond the current state of AI to support an agent that could operate intell…
Networked-Control Systems (NCSs), a type of cyber-physical systems, consist of tightly integrated computing, communication and control technologies. While being very flexible environments, they are vulnerable to computing and networking attacks. Recent NCSs hacking incidents had major impact. They call for more research on cyber-physical security. Fears about the use of quantum computing to break current cryptosystems make matters worse. While the quantum threat motivated the creation of new disciplines to handle the issue, such as post-quantum cryptography, other fields have overlooked the ex…
Active cyber defenses based on temporal platform diversity have been proposed as way to make systems more resistant to attacks. These defenses change the properties of the platforms in order to make attacks more complicated. Unfortunately, little work has been done on measuring the effectiveness of these defenses. In this work, we use four different approaches to quantitatively analyze these defenses; an abstract analysis studies the algebraic models of a temporal platform diversity system; a set of experiments on a test bed measures the metrics of interest for the system; a game theoretic ana…
Nowadays, considering the speed of the processes and the amount of data used in cyber defense, it cannot be expected to have an effective defense by using only human power without the help of automation systems. However, for the effective defense against dynamically evolving attacks on networks, it is difficult to develop software with conventional fixed algorithms. This can be achieved by using artificial intelligence methods that provide flexibility and learning capability. The likelihood of developing cyber defense capabilities through increased intelligence of defense systems is quite high…
The increasing instances of advanced attacks call for a new defense paradigm that is active, autonomous, and adaptive, named as the \texttt{`3A'} defense paradigm. This chapter introduces three defense schemes that actively interact with attackers to increase the attack cost and gather threat information, i.e., defensive deception for detection and counter-deception, feedback-driven Moving Target Defense (MTD), and adaptive honeypot engagement. Due to the cyber deception, external noise, and the absent knowledge of the other players' behaviors and goals, these schemes possess three progressive…
While the Internet of things (IoT) promises to improve areas such as energy efficiency, health care, and transportation, it is highly vulnerable to cyberattacks. In particular, DDoS attacks work by overflowing the bandwidth of a server. But many IoT devices form part of cyber-physical systems (CPS). Therefore, they can be used to launch a "physical" denial-of-service attack (PDoS) in which IoT devices overflow the "physical bandwidth" of a CPS. In this paper, we quantify the population-based risk to a group of IoT devices targeted by malware for a PDoS attack. To model the recruitment of bots,…
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Exploratory Team meeting, "Model-Driven Paradigms for Integrated Approaches to Cyber Defense," was organized by the NATO Science and Technology Organization's (STO) Information Systems and Technology (IST) panel and conducted its meetings and electronic exchanges during 2016. This report describes the proceedings and outcomes of the team's efforts. Many of the defensive activities in the fields of cyber warfare and information assurance rely on essentially ad hoc techniques. The cyber community recognizes that comprehensive, systematic, principle-b…
The 1st International Workshop on Adaptive Cyber Defense was held as part of the 2021 International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. This workshop was organized to share research that explores unique applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) as foundational capabilities for the pursuit of adaptive cyber defense. The cyber domain cannot currently be reliably and effectively defended without extensive reliance on human experts. Skilled cyber defenders are in short supply and often cannot respond fast enough to cyber threats. Building on recent advances in…
An ever increasing number of battlefield devices that are capable of collecting, processing, storing, and communicating information are rapidly becoming interconnected. The staggering number of connected devices on the battlefield greatly increases the possibility that an adversary could find ways to exploit hardware or software vulnerabilities, degrading or denying Warfighters the assured and secure use of those devices. Autonomous software agents will become necessities to manage, defend, and react to cyber threats in the future battlespace. The number of connected devices increases dispropo…
A significant limitation of current cyber security research and techniques is its reactive and applied nature. This leads to a continuous 'cyber cycle' of attackers scanning networks, developing exploits and attacking systems, with defenders detecting attacks, analyzing exploits and patching systems. This reactive nature leaves sensitive systems highly vulnerable to attack due to un-patched systems and undetected exploits. Some current research attempts to address this major limitation by introducing systems that implement moving target defense. However, these ideas are typically based on the …
Internet users such as individuals and organizations are subject to different types of epidemic risks such as worms, viruses, spams, and botnets. To reduce the probability of risk, an Internet user generally invests in traditional security mechanisms like anti-virus and anti-spam software, sometimes also known as self-defense mechanisms. However, such software does not completely eliminate risk. Recent works have considered the problem of residual risk elimination by proposing the idea of cyber-insurance. In this regard, an important research problem is the analysis of optimal user self-defens…
Social engineering attacks are phenomena that are equally applicable to both the physical world and cyberspace. These attacks in the physical world have been studied for a much longer time than their counterpart in cyberspace. This motivates us to investigate how social engineering attacks in the physical world and cyberspace relate to each other, including their common characteristics and unique features. For this purpose, we propose a methodology to unify social engineering attacks and defenses in the physical world and cyberspace into a single framework, including: (i) a systematic model ba…
This report summarizes the discussions and findings of the Workshop on Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defence and Resilience organized by the NATO research group IST-152-RTG. The workshop was held in Prague, Czech Republic, on 18-20 October 2017. There is a growing recognition that future cyber defense should involve extensive use of partially autonomous agents that actively patrol the friendly network, and detect and react to hostile activities rapidly (far faster than human reaction time), before the hostile malware is able to inflict major damage, evade friendly agents, or destroy …
Cyber deception has recently received increasing attentions as a promising mechanism for proactive cyber defense. Cyber deception strategies aim at injecting intentionally falsified information to sabotage the early stage of attack reconnaissance and planning in order to render the final attack action harmless or ineffective. Motivated by recent advances in cyber deception research, we in this paper provide a formal view of cyber deception, and review high-level deception schemes and actions. We also summarize and classify recent research results of cyber defense techniques built upon the conc…
The concept of active cyber defense has been proposed for years. However, there are no mathematical models for characterizing the effectiveness of active cyber defense. In this paper, we fill the void by proposing a novel Markov process model that is native to the interaction between cyber attack and active cyber defense. Unfortunately, the native Markov process model cannot be tackled by the techniques we are aware of. We therefore simplify, via mean-field approximation, the Markov process model as a Dynamic System model that is amenable to analysis. This allows us to derive a set of valuable…
Cybersecurity dynamics is a mathematical approach to modeling and analyzing cyber attack-defense interactions in networks. In this paper, we advance the state-of-the-art in characterizing one kind of cybersecurity dynamics, known as preventive and reactive cyber defense dynamics, which is a family of highly nonlinear system models. We prove that this dynamics in its general form with time-dependent parameters is globally attractive when the time-dependent parameters are ergodic, and is (almost) periodic when the time-dependent parameters have the stronger properties of being (almost) periodic.…
Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific（太平洋海军信息战中心）；Laboratory for Advanced Cybersecurity Research（高级网络安全研究实验室）
Deceptive elements, including honeypots and decoys, were incorporated into the Microsoft CyberBattleSim experimentation and research platform. The defensive capabilities of the deceptive elements were tested using reinforcement learning based attackers in the provided capture the flag environment. The attacker's progress was found to be dependent on the number and location of the deceptive elements. This is a promising step toward reproducibly testing attack and defense algorithms in a simulated enterprise network with deceptive defensive elements.
An Unsupervised Learning Approach For A Reliable Profiling Of Cyber Threat Actors Reported Globally Based On Complete Contextual Information Of Cyber Attacks
Cyber security threats to the payment and banking system have become a worldwide menace. The phenomenon has forced financial institutions to take risks as part of their business model. Hence, deliberate investment in sophisticated technologies and security measures has become imperative to safeguard against heavy financial losses and information breaches that may occur due to cyber-attacks. The proliferation of cyber crimes is a huge concern for various stakeholders in the banking sector. Usually, cyber-attacks are carried out via software systems running on a computing system in cyberspace. A…
Today's cyber defense tools are mostly watchers. They are not active doers. To be sure, watching too is a demanding affair. These tools monitor the traffic and events; they detect malicious signatures, patterns and anomalies; they might classify and characterize what they observe; they issue alerts, and they might even learn while doing all this. But they don't act. They do little to plan and execute responses to attacks, and they don't plan and execute recovery activities. Response and recovery - core elements of cyber resilience are left to the human cyber analysts, incident responders and s…
This survey presents a comprehensive review of current literature on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods for cyber security applications. Due to the rapid development of Internet-connected systems and Artificial Intelligence in recent years, Artificial Intelligence including Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) has been widely utilized in the fields of cyber security including intrusion detection, malware detection, and spam filtering. However, although Artificial Intelligence-based approaches for the detection and defense of cyber attacks and threats are more advanced an…
The prominence and use of the concept of cyber risk has been rising in recent years. This paper presents empirical investigations focused on two important and distinct groups within the broad community of cyber-defense professionals and researchers: (1) cyber practitioners and (2) developers of cyber ontologies. The key finding of this work is that the ways the concept of cyber risk is treated by practitioners of cybersecurity is largely inconsistent with definitions of cyber risk commonly offered in the literature. Contrary to commonly cited definitions of cyber risk, concepts such as the lik…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is envisioned to play a pivotal role in empowering intelligent, adaptive and autonomous security management in 5G and beyond networks, thanks to its potential to uncover hidden patterns from a large set of time-varying multi-dimensional data, and deliver faster and accurate decisions. Unfortunately, AI's capabilities and vulnerabilities make it a double-edged sword that may jeopardize the security of future networks. This paper sheds light on how AI may impact the security of 5G and its successive from its posture of defender, offender or victim, and recommends pot…
