arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2201.10808econ.GNcs.AIq-fin.ECstat.AP
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复杂决策的速度、质量和最佳时机:现场证据

Speed, Quality, and the Optimal Timing of Complex Decisions: Field Evidence

LMU Munich(慕尼黑大学);CEPR(欧洲政策研究中心);Ifo(伊福经济研究所);IZA(德国劳动经济研究所);Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University(伊拉斯姆斯大学鹿特丹管理学院);CREST-ENSAE(法国国家统计与经济管理学院应用经济研究中心);CESifo(慕尼黑经济研究中心)

Uwe Sunde, Dainis Zegners, Anthony Strittmatter

摘要:

本文提出了一个实证研究的决策速度和决策质量之间的关系,为现实世界的设置认知要求的决策,决策的时间是内生的:专业国际象棋。逐步走棋数据提供了关于决策时间和决策质量的非常详细和精确的信息,其基础是将实际决策与使用国际象棋引擎的人工智能构建的最佳走棋的计算基准进行比较。结果表明,更快的决策与更好的性能相关。研究结果是一致的预测程序决策模型,如漂移扩散模型,决策者顺序获取信息的决策方案与不确定的估值。

英文摘要:

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess. Move-by-move data provide exceptionally detailed and precise information about decision times and decision quality, based on a comparison of actual decisions to a computational benchmark of best moves constructed using the artificial intelligence of a chess engine. The results reveal that faster decisions are associated with better performance. The findings are consistent with the predictions of procedural decision models like drift-diffusion-models in which decision makers sequentially acquire information about decision alternatives with uncertain valuations.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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