南半球冬季中纬度风暴的加强
The intensification of winter mid-latitude storms in the Southern Hemisphere
摘要：
中纬度风暴路径的强度影响着热带以外地区的天气和气候现象，因为这些风暴路径控制着降水、温度和风的日变化和数十年变化。到本世纪末，冬季中纬度风暴预计将在南半球加强，对整个热带以外地区产生重大影响。因此，能够准确评估人为排放对这些风暴的影响至关重要，以便改善社会对未来变化的准备。在这里，我们表明，目前的气候模式严重低估了近几十年来中纬度风暴轨迹的强化。特别是，从再分析得到的强化已经达到了模型预测的世纪末强化。偏置的强化被认为是联系在纬向流的偏见。这些结果质疑气候模式准确预测未来南半球中纬度地区人为排放影响的能力。
英文摘要：
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century, winter mid-latitude storms are projected to intensify in the Southern Hemisphere, with large consequences over the entire extra-tropics. Therefore, it is critical to be able to accurately assess the impacts of anthropogenic emissions on these storms, in order to improve societal preparedness for future changes. Here we show that current climate models severely underestimate the intensification in mid-latitude storm-tracks in recent decades. Specifically, the intensification obtained from reanalyses has already reached the model-projected end of the century intensification. The biased intensification is found to be linked to biases in the zonal flow. These results question the ability of climate models to accurately predict the future impacts of anthropogenic emissions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
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