DRAKE的使命：寻找宇宙中的生命频率
The DRAKE mission: finding the frequency of life in the Cosmos
摘要：
在宇宙中寻找生命的过程中，系外行星代表了许多关于行星形成、进化和生命出现的自然实验。这提出了在统计基础上评估宇宙生命的迷人前景。一个关键的统计数据是生命世界的出现率，$f_{\rm L}$，著名的德雷克方程中的“生命频率”术语。测量$f_{\rm L}$将使我们对生命的普遍性有更深刻的认识，并有助于限制生命起源理论。我建议将$f_{\rm L}$作为DRAKE任务（推进外生物学知识的专门研究）的目标：M矮宜居带类地行星的凌日光谱调查。我调查如何观察值的不确定性$f_{\rm L}$规模与样本量。我确定，采样误差占主导地位的观测误差和不确定性是一个功能的观测$f_{\rm L}$值。我表明，即使是小样本量可以提供显着的限制$f_{\rm L}$，预示着良好的过境光谱方法。我使用名义上的仪器设计和任务计划进行可行性研究的德雷克任务。由于观测效率较低，德雷克可能需要纳入更广泛的深空或月球观测站。如果样本$f_{\rm L}$ = 0，则50颗行星的调查可以将$f_{\rm L}$限制为$\leq$ 0.06（95%置信度），或者如果样本$f_{\rm L}$ = 0.1，则限制为0.03-0.2。这可以在10年内实现（平均）使用17米望远镜与不受限制的领域。DRAKE是一种可行的方法来尝试$f_{\rm L}$的第一个实验测量。
英文摘要：
In the search for life in the Universe, exoplanets represent numerous natural experiments in planet formation, evolution, and the emergence of life. This raises the fascinating prospect of evaluating cosmic life on a statistical basis. One key statistic is the occurrence rate of life-bearing worlds, $f_{\rm L}$, the 'frequency of life' term in the famous Drake Equation. Measuring $f_{\rm L}$ would give profound insight into how common life is and may help to constrain origin-of-life theories. I propose $f_{\rm L}$ as the goal for the DRAKE mission (Dedicated Research for Advancing Knowledge of Exobiology): a transit spectroscopy survey of M-dwarf habitable zone terrestrial planets. I investigate how the uncertainty on the observed value of $f_{\rm L}$ scales with sample size. I determine that sampling error dominates over observational error and that the uncertainty is a function of the observed $f_{\rm L}$ value. I show that even small sample sizes can provide significant constraints on $f_{\rm L}$, boding well for the transit spectroscopy approach. I perform a feasibility study of the DRAKE mission using a nominal instrument design and mission plan. Due to low observing efficiencies, DRAKE may need to be incorporated into a wider-ranging deep-space or lunar observatory. A 50-planet survey could constrain $f_{\rm L}$ to $\leq$ 0.06 (at 95% confidence) if the sample $f_{\rm L}$ = 0, or 0.03-0.2 if the sample $f_{\rm L}$ = 0.1. This can be achieved (on average) in 10 years using a 17-m telescope with an unrestricted field-of-regard. DRAKE is a viable approach to attempting the first experimental measurement of $f_{\rm L}$.
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