加入EU是否提高了EU-13的专利绩效？--使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型进行因果影响分析的关键评价
Has EU accession boosted patents performance in the EU-13? -- A critical evaluation using causal impact analysis with Bayesian structural time-series models
摘要：
创新是当今经济发展的主要决定因素之一。专利是衡量创新产出的一个关键指标，因为专利指标反映了国家、技术和公司的发明绩效。本文通过对欧盟新成员国（EU-13）专利绩效的调查，对欧盟扩大的因果效应提供了新的见解。根据从经合组织数据库收集的1985-2017年数据和使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型（由谷歌提出）的因果影响的实证结果，得出的结论是，加入欧盟对罗马尼亚，爱沙尼亚，波兰，捷克共和国，克罗地亚和立陶宛的专利绩效产生了重大影响，尽管后两个国家的影响是负面的。对于欧盟13国的其他国家，对专利绩效没有显著影响。无论加入欧盟的效果是否显著，欧盟13国在专利绩效方面都远远落后于欧盟15国（2004年之前加入欧盟的国家）。大多数专利（98.66%）被分配给欧盟15国，只有1.34%的受让人属于欧盟13国。
英文摘要：
Nowadays innovation is one of the main determinants of economic development. Patents are a key measure of innovation output, as patent indicators reflect the inventive performance of countries, technologies and firms. This paper provides new insights on the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) by investigating the patents performance within the new EU member states (EU-13). The empirical results based on data collected from the OECD database from 1985-2017 and causal impact using a Bayesian structural time-series model (proposed by Google) point towards a conclusion that joining the EU has had a significant impact on patents performance in Romania, Estonia, Poland, Czech Republic, Croatia and Lithuania, although in the latter two countries the impact was negative. For the rest of the EU-13 countries there is no significant effect on patent performance. Whether the EU accession effect is significant or not, the EU-13 are far behind the EU-15 (countries which entered the EU before 2004) in terms of patent performance. The majority of patents (98.66\%) are assigned to the EU-15, with just 1.34\% of assignees belonging to the EU-13.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
