印度和中国新车市场的燃料消耗弹性、反弹效应和有效性
Fuel consumption elasticities, rebound effect and feebate effectiveness in the Indian and Chinese new car markets
摘要：
中国和印度是世界上人口最多的两个发展中经济体，也是世界上最大的汽车市场和碳排放国之一。为了减少乘用车部门的碳排放，两国都考虑了影响燃料价格、汽车价格和燃料经济性的各种政策杠杆。这项研究估计了中国和印度新车购买者对这些政策杠杆和驱动因素（包括收入）的反应。此外，我们估计了潜在的反弹效应和收费政策的有效性。为了实现这一目标，我们开发了一个汽车选择和使用的联合离散-连续模型，该模型基于来自印度和中国的约8000名新车购买者的偏好调查数据，这些购买者在2016-17年购买了汽车。在购买新车的条件下，在这两个市场的燃料消费被发现是相对不敏感的燃料价格和收入，弹性估计的幅度从0.12到0.15不等。对于这两个市场，平均细分水平的直接弹性的燃料消耗相对于汽车价格和燃油经济性的范围从0.57到0.65。印度和中国的无成本燃油经济性改善对燃油节省的反弹效应分别为17.1%和18.8%。收入中性的收费政策，平均回扣和费用高达零售价格的15%左右，导致两个市场的燃油节省约0.7%。虽然燃油费政策的反弹效果较低--印度为7.3%，中国为1.6%--但它似乎不是一项有效的燃油节约政策。
英文摘要：
China and India, the world's two most populous developing economies, are also among the world's largest automotive markets and carbon emitters. To reduce carbon emissions from the passenger car sector, both countries have considered various policy levers affecting fuel prices, car prices and fuel economy. This study estimates the responsiveness of new car buyers in China and India to such policy levers and drivers including income. Furthermore, we estimate the potential for rebound effect and the effectiveness of a feebate policy. To accomplish this, we developed a joint discrete-continuous model of car choice and usage based on revealed preference survey data from approximately 8000 new car buyers from India and China who purchased cars in 2016-17. Conditional on buying a new car, the fuel consumption in both markets is found to be relatively unresponsive to fuel price and income, with magnitudes of elasticity estimates ranging from 0.12 to 0.15. For both markets, the mean segment-level direct elasticities of fuel consumption relative to car price and fuel economy range from 0.57 to 0.65. The rebound effect on fuel savings due to cost-free fuel economy improvement is found to be 17.1% for India and 18.8% for China. A revenue-neutral feebate policy, with average rebates and fees of up to around 15% of the retail price, resulted in fuel savings of around 0.7% for both markets. While the feebate policy's rebound effect is low - 7.3% for India and 1.6% for China - it does not appear to be an effective fuel conservation policy.
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