印度不同省份COVID-19预测的可解释AI框架
Explainable AI Framework for COVID-19 Prediction in Different Provinces of India
摘要：
2020年，新型冠状病毒已蔓延至200多个国家。截至2021年12月20日，全球221个国家共报告确诊2.75亿例新冠肺炎病例，死亡总人数达537万人。由于人口众多，许多国家（包括美国、印度、巴西、英国、俄罗斯等）受到COVID-19疫情的严重影响。截至2021年12月20日，该国报告的确诊病例总数分别为5170万、3470万、2220万、1130万、1020万。这种流行病可以在该国政府和平民采取预防措施的帮助下得到控制。对新型冠状病毒病例的早期预测有助于跟踪传播动态并提醒政府采取必要的预防措施。循环深度学习算法是一种数据驱动模型，在捕获时间序列数据中存在的模式方面发挥着关键作用。在许多文献中，基于递归神经网络（RNN）的模型被提出用于不同省份的COVID-19病例的有效预测。文献中的研究没有涉及模型行为和鲁棒性的解释。在这项研究中，提出了LSTM模型，用于有效预测印度各省的活跃病例。印度各省的活跃病例数据集来自约翰霍普金斯大学公开提供的数据集，持续时间为2020年6月10日至2021年8月4日。所提出的LSTM模型是在一个状态上训练的，即，马哈拉施特拉邦和测试的其余省份在印度。为了更好地解释和理解模型行为，本研究引入了可解释人工智能的概念。该模型用于预测2021年12月16日至2022年3月5日印度的活跃病例。预计2022年1月，印度将出现第三次浪潮。
英文摘要：
In 2020, covid-19 virus had reached more than 200 countries. Till December 20th 2021, 221 nations in the world had collectively reported 275M confirmed cases of covid-19 & total death toll of 5.37M. Many countries which include United States, India, Brazil, United Kingdom, Russia etc were badly affected by covid-19 pandemic due to the large population. The total confirmed cases reported in this country are 51.7M, 34.7M, 22.2M, 11.3M, 10.2M respectively till December 20, 2021. This pandemic can be controlled with the help of precautionary steps by government & civilians of the country. The early prediction of covid-19 cases helps to track the transmission dynamics & alert the government to take the necessary precautions. Recurrent Deep learning algorithms is a data driven model which plays a key role to capture the patterns present in time series data. In many literatures, the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based model are proposed for the efficient prediction of COVID-19 cases for different provinces. The study in the literature doesnt involve the interpretation of the model behavior & robustness. In this study, The LSTM model is proposed for the efficient prediction of active cases in each provinces of India. The active cases dataset for each province in India is taken from John Hopkins publicly available dataset for the duration from 10th June, 2020 to 4th August, 2021. The proposed LSTM model is trained on one state i.e., Maharashtra and tested for rest of the provinces in India. The concept of Explainable AI is involved in this study for the better interpretation & understanding of the model behavior. The proposed model is used to forecast the active cases in India from 16th December, 2021 to 5th March, 2022. It is notated that there will be a emergence of third wave on January, 2022 in India.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
