基于贝叶斯推断的育苗生境时空模拟--青蟹幼蟹育苗的环境驱动因素
Spatiotemporal Modeling of Nursery Habitat Using Bayesian Inference: Environmental Drivers of Juvenile Blue Crab Abundance
摘要：
育苗场通过丰富的食物资源和避难所，有利于鱼类和甲壳类幼鱼的生长和生存，提高种群的二次生产力。虽然小规模的研究仍然是重要的工具，以评估苗圃价值的栖息地，有针对性的应用程序，统一调查数据在大的时空尺度是至关重要的概括推断苗圃功能，确定高产地区，并告知管理策略。利用21年的地理信息系统和时空索引的潜在苗圃生境的实地调查数据，我们构建了5个贝叶斯模型，不同的时空依赖结构，推断苗圃生境价值的青蟹C。在切萨皮克湾下游的三条支流中发现了沙蜥。从一个完全不可分离的时空模型的样本外预测少年计数优于从简单的模型预测。盐沼表面积，浊度，以及它们之间的相互作用表现出最强的协会（和积极）与丰富。相对海草面积，以前强调的最有价值的苗圃在小的空间尺度的研究，与丰富。因此，我们认为，盐沼应被视为一个关键的苗圃栖息地蓝蟹，即使在广泛的海草床。此外，苗圃的识别应基于广泛的时空尺度的调查，包括多个潜在的苗圃栖息地，并严格解决时空依赖性。
英文摘要：
Nursery grounds are favorable for growth and survival of juvenile fish and crustaceans through abundant food resources and refugia, and enhance secondary production of populations. While small-scale studies remain important tools to assess nursery value of habitats, targeted applications that unify survey data over large spatiotemporal scales are vital to generalize inference of nursery function, identify highly productive regions, and inform management strategies. Using 21 years of GIS and spatiotemporally indexed field survey data on potential nursery habitats, we constructed five Bayesian models with varying spatiotemporal dependence structures to infer nursery habitat value for juveniles of the blue crab C. sapidus within three tributaries in lower Chesapeake Bay. Out-of-sample predictions of juvenile counts from a fully nonseparable spatiotemporal model outperformed predictions from simpler models. Salt marsh surface area, turbidity, and their interaction showed the strongest associations (and positively) with abundance. Relative seagrass area, previously emphasized as the most valuable nursery in small spatial-scale studies, was not associated with abundance. Hence, we argue that salt marshes should be considered a key nursery habitat for blue crabs, even amidst extensive seagrass beds. Moreover, identification of nurseries should be based on investigations at broad spatiotemporal scales incorporating multiple potential nursery habitats, and on rigorously addressing spatiotemporal dependence.
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