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arXiv 2201.06717cs.LGcs.AI
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GTrans:基于图嵌入的时空自回归Transformer方法预测极端事件临近预报

GTrans: Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Transformer with Graph Embeddings for Nowcasting Extreme Events

Indiana University Bloomington(印第安纳大学伯明顿分校);University of Virginia(弗吉尼亚大学)

Bo Feng, Geoffrey Fox

摘要:

时空时间序列临近预报应该保持时间和空间动态,因为从模型生成的新序列尊重历史的协方差关系。传统的特征提取器是用深度卷积神经网络(CNN)构建的。然而,CNN模型对于可以用高维数组形成数据的类似图像的应用具有限制。相反,在社交网络、道路交通、物理和化学性质预测中的应用,其中数据特征可以用图的节点和边来组织。Transformer架构是一种新兴的预测模型方法,由于注意力机制的设计,带来了高精度和高效率。本文提出了一种时空模型,即GTrans,它将数据特征转换为图嵌入,并使用Transformer模型预测时间动态。根据我们的实验,我们证明了GTrans可以模拟空间和时间动态,并对数据集的极端事件进行临近预报。此外,在所有的实验中,GTrans可以实现最高的F1和F2分数在二进制类预测测试比基线模型。

英文摘要:

Spatiotemporal time series nowcasting should preserve temporal and spatial dynamics in the sense that generated new sequences from models respect the covariance relationship from history. Conventional feature extractors are built with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). However, CNN models have limits to image-like applications where data can be formed with high-dimensional arrays. In contrast, applications in social networks, road traffic, physics, and chemical property prediction where data features can be organized with nodes and edges of graphs. Transformer architecture is an emerging method for predictive models, bringing high accuracy and efficiency due to attention mechanism design. This paper proposes a spatiotemporal model, namely GTrans, that transforms data features into graph embeddings and predicts temporal dynamics with a transformer model. According to our experiments, we demonstrate that GTrans can model spatial and temporal dynamics and nowcasts extreme events for datasets. Furthermore, in all the experiments, GTrans can achieve the highest F1 and F2 scores in binary-class prediction tests than the baseline models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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