比特币挖矿的动态
Dynamics of Bitcoin mining
摘要：
当比特币价格发生变化时，当采矿供应冲击，能源价格变化或硬件技术发展时，采矿会发生什么？我们根据系统中的技术力量和激励机制给出精确的答案。然后，我们在这些动态的基础上考虑价值：采矿的成本和目的是什么，值得吗？它是否消耗太多能源，对环境有害？最后，我们将分析扩展到长期：采矿在经济上永远可行吗？40年后全球哈希率会是多少？挖矿如何受到计算和能源限制的影响？从长远来看，它在物理上是可持续的吗？从第一性原理，我们推导出一个基本的规模不变的可行性约束，这使我们能够分析联锁动力学，找到关键的不变量，并回答这些问题的数学。
英文摘要：
What happens to mining when the Bitcoin price changes, when there are mining supply shocks, the price of energy changes, or hardware technology evolves? We give precise answers based on the technical forces and incentives in the system. We then build on these dynamics to consider value: what is the cost and purpose of mining, and is it worth it? Does it use too much energy, is it bad for the environment? Finally we extend our analysis to the long term: is mining economically feasible forever? What will the global hash rate be in 40 years? How is mining impacted by the limits of computation and energy? Is it physically sustainable in the long run? From first principles, we derive a fundamental scale-invariant feasibility constraint, which enables us to analyze the interlocking dynamics, find key invariants, and answer these questions mathematically.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
