实时监测经济：实际活动和价格的趋势和差距
Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
摘要：
我们提出了两个规格的实时混合频率半结构时间序列模型，用于评估美国的产出潜力，产出缺口，菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律。基线模型使用最小的基于理论的多元识别限制来为趋势周期分解提供信息，而替代模型则添加国会预算办公室的产出缺口指标作为观察变量。后一种模型的结果是更平稳的产出潜力和较低的通货膨胀和实际变量之间的周期性相关性，但在预测短期以外的表现较差。这一方法有助于评估和实时监测官方趋势和差距估计数。
英文摘要：
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based multivariate identification restrictions to inform trend-cycle decomposition, while the alternative model adds the CBO's output gap measure as an observed variable. The latter model results in a smoother output potential and lower cyclical correlation between inflation and real variables but performs worse in forecasting beyond the short term. This methodology allows for the assessment and real-time monitoring of official trend and gap estimates.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
