猪流行性腹泻病毒场间传播动力学模型的建立：主要传播途径的特征
Modeling between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus: characterizing the dominant transmission routes
摘要：
在猪流行性腹泻病毒（PEDV）的传播动力学中，运输车辆、猪场之间的猪移动、感染场所的接近程度以及饲料运送的作用尚未得到充分考虑。这限制了疾病控制和消除的努力，限制了基于风险的资源分配的发展，以最相关的PEDV传播模式。在这里，我们模拟了九种农场间传播途径的模式，包括农场到农场的邻近性（本地传输），猪场在站点之间移动的联系网络，运输车辆的四个不同联系网络（将猪从一个农场运送到另一个农场、将猪运送到市场、分发饲料和运送工作人员的车辆），饲料中动物副产品（如动物脂肪、肉和骨粉）的体积，以再现PEDV传播动力学。用每周PEDV爆发在空间和时间上校准该模型。我们研究了模型的性能，以确定爆发地点和PEDV传播中每种途径的贡献。该模型估计，母猪场42.7%的感染与运输饲料的车辆有关，34.5%的受感染托儿所与将猪运送到农场的车辆有关，对于这两种农场类型，猪的移动或本地传播是下一个最相关的途径。另一方面，育肥猪最常（31.4%）通过本地传播感染，其次是将饲料和猪运送到农场网络的车辆。饲料成分没有显着改善模型校准指标。所提出的建模框架提供了PEDV传播动态的评估，对PEDV传播的最重要途径进行排名，并向养猪业提供有价值的信息，以将努力和资源集中在最重要的传播途径上。
英文摘要：
The role of transportation vehicles, pig movement between farms, proximity to infected premises, and feed deliveries has not been fully considered in the dissemination dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). This has limited efforts for disease control and elimination restricting the development of risk-based resource allocation to the most relevant modes of PEDV dissemination. Here, we modeled nine modes of between-farm transmission pathways including farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), contact network of pig farm movements between sites, four different contact networks of transportation vehicles (vehicles that transport pigs from farm-to-farm, pigs to markets, feed distribution and crew), the volume of animal by-products within feed diets (e.g. animal fat and meat and bone meal) to reproduce PEDV transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated in space and time with weekly PEDV outbreaks. We investigated the model performance to identify outbreak locations and the contribution of each route in the dissemination of PEDV. The model estimated that 42.7% of the infections in sow farms were related to vehicles transporting feed, 34.5% of infected nurseries were associated with vehicles transporting pigs to farms, and for both farm types, pig movements or local transmission were the next most relevant routes. On the other hand, finishers were most often (31.4%) infected via local transmission, followed by the vehicles transporting feed and pigs to farm networks. Feed ingredients did not significantly improve model calibration metrics. The proposed modeling framework provides an evaluation of PEDV transmission dynamics, ranking the most important routes of PEDV dissemination and granting the swine industry valuable information to focus efforts and resources on the most important transmission routes.
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