利用房屋展示活动预测住宅市场
Housing Market Forecasting using Home Showing Events
摘要：
买卖双方在房地产交易中都面临着不确定性，即何时进行交易以及以何种成本进行交易。买家和卖家都在不了解大型动态房地产市场的现状和未来状况的情况下做出决策。目前的方法依赖于对历史交易的分析来为房产定价。然而，正如我们在本文中所展示的，交易数据本身不能用于预测需求。我们开发了一个住房需求指数的基础上，微观家庭看房事件数据，可以提供决策支持的买家和卖家在一个非常细粒度的时间和空间尺度。我们使用统计建模来开发一个长达20周的住房市场需求预测，使用大量，高速度的数据，包括房屋展示，上市事件和历史销售数据。我们使用来自一个独特的专有数据集的700万条个人记录的数据来展示我们的分析，该数据集以前从未在房地产市场中应用过。然后，我们采用一系列预测模型来估计当前和预测未来的住房需求。住房需求指数提供了对市场上房屋需求水平的洞察，以及当前需求在多大程度上代表了未来的预期。因此，这些指数为关于何时出售或购买或住房需求市场弹性的重要问题提供决策支持，这些问题影响价格谈判，价格接受和价格制定预期。这种预测特别有价值，因为它可以帮助买家和卖家及时了解他们是否应该进行房屋交易，或者根据我们预测的住房需求指数调整当前和未来的房价。
英文摘要：
Both buyers and sellers face uncertainty in real estate transactions in about when to time a transaction and at what cost. Both buyers and sellers make decisions without knowing the present and future state of the large and dynamic real estate market. Current approaches rely on analysis of historic transactions to price a property. However, as we show in this paper, the transaction data alone cannot be used to forecast demand. We develop a housing demand index based on microscopic home showings events data that can provide decision-making support for buyers and sellers on a very granular time and spatial scale. We use statistical modeling to develop a housing market demand forecast up to twenty weeks using high-volume, high-velocity data on home showings, listing events, and historic sales data. We demonstrate our analysis using data from seven million individual records sourced from a unique, proprietary dataset that has not previously been explored in application to the real estate market. We then employ a series of predictive models to estimate current and forecast future housing demand. A housing demand index provides insight into the level of demand for a home on the market and to what extent current demand represents future expectation. As a result, these indices provide decision-making support into important questions about when to sell or buy, or the elasticity present in the housing demand market, which impact price negotiations, price-taking and price-setting expectations. This forecast is especially valuable because it helps buyers and sellers to know on a granular and timely basis if they should engage in a home transaction or adjust their home price both in current and future states based on our forecasted housing demand index.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
