FIFA排名：评估和前进道路
FIFA ranking: Evaluation and path forward
摘要：
在这项工作中，我们研究了国际足联（FIFA）所使用的排名算法，我们分析了它目前使用的参数，显示了正式的概率模型，它可以从中派生，并优化后者。特别是，分析自2018年引入该算法以来的比赛，我们得出结论，从算法的预测能力来看，算法中使用的比赛“重要性”（由国际足联定义）适得其反。我们还假设该算法是植根于正式的建模原则，戴维森模型在1970年提出的似乎是一个很好的候选人，保持目前使用的算法的形式。结果表明，利用主场优势和明确的平局模型，该算法的预测能力得到了显著提高。适度的，但显着的改善，可以通过引入加权的结果与目标差异，虽然不是植根于正式的建模原则，是兼容的，与当前的算法，并可以调整到足球比赛的特点。
英文摘要：
In this work we study the ranking algorithm used by Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA); we analyze the parameters it currently uses, show the formal probabilistic model from which it can be derived, and optimize the latter. In particular, analyzing the games since the introduction of the algorithm in 2018, we conclude that the game's "importance" (as defined by FIFA) used in the algorithm is counterproductive from the point of view of the predictive capability of the algorithm. We also postulate the algorithm to be rooted in the formal modelling principle, where the Davidson model proposed in 1970 seems to be an excellent candidate, preserving the form of the algorithm currently used. The results indicate that the predictive capability of the algorithm is notably improved by using the home-field advantage and the explicit model for the draws in the game. Moderate, but notable improvement may be attained by introducing the weighting of the results with the goal differential, which although not rooted in a formal modelling principle, is compatible with the current algorithm and can be tuned to the characteristics of the football competition.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
