理论经济学与二阶经济理论。它是什么？
Theoretical Economics and the Second-Order Economic Theory. What is it?
AI总结：
本文提出二阶经济理论，指出一阶经济变量需由交易额平方和构成的二阶变量补充，并论证该理论的复杂性使得价格预测仅限于高斯近似下的波动率估计。
摘要：
经济主体的经济和金融变量决定了宏观经济变量。当前模型考虑的主体系变量是由主体在某个时间间隔 Δ 内的交易价值和交易量的总和决定的。我们将其称为一阶经济变量。我们描述了市场交易价值和交易量的波动率与相关性如何决定价格波动率。我们论证了这种联系要求考虑主体的二阶经济变量，这些变量由主体在 Δ 期间交易额的平方和构成。几乎所有的一阶变量都应由其二阶配对变量来补充。相应地，主体的二阶变量总和引入了二阶宏观经济变量。对一阶和二阶宏观经济变量的描述确立了二阶经济理论的研究主题。我们强调，二阶经济理论的复杂性从根本上限制了对价格概率进行精确预测的任何希望，且充其量只能提供对价格波动率的估计。这将价格概率的预测限制在仅使用高斯近似。
英文摘要：
The economic and financial variables of economic agents determine macroeconomic variables. Current models consider agents' variables that are determined by the sums of values and volumes of agents' trades during some time interval Δ. We call them first-order economic variables. We describe how the volatilities and correlations of market trade values and volumes determine price volatility. We argue that such a link requests consideration of agents' economic variables of the second order that are composed of sums of squares of agents' transactions during Δ. Almost any variable of the first order should be complemented by its second-order pair. Respectively, the sums of agents' second-order variables introduce macroeconomic variables of the second order. The description of the first- and second-order macroeconomic variables establishes the subject of second-order economic theory. We highlight that the complexity of second-order economic theory essentially restricts any hopes for precise predictions of price probability and, at best, could provide estimates of price volatility. That limits the predictions of price probability to Gauss's approximations only.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
